News archive January 2012

Planned shipments of Russian Urals crude from both the Black Sea and the Baltic are set to fall in February, boosting the grade’s value further. February loadings from Primorsk are set to fall by 140 kbpd from this month, to 1.35 mbpd, whilst Novorossiysk shipments are scheduled to fall by 70 kbpd, to 710 kbpd, Argus reports. The lower supplies are combining with strong fuel oil margins, supply concerns arising from recently imposed sanctions against Iranian exports and strong Chinese buying to boost Urals value relative to North Sea marker, Brent.

The price of wire rod in China for the week ending 27 January was unchanged from the previous week, at $663/t, according to World Steel Dynamics. This took the average price in January 3% lower month-on-month to $666/t, posting the lowest monthly average since October 2010.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Transport, China announced that ultra-large dry bulk vessels and oil tankers will be prohibited from discharging at Chinese ports with immediate effect.

Around 100 kbpd of North Sea grade, Forties, has loaded for delivery to the Asia-Pacific in January, following on from the 149 kbpd that headed east in December, Argus reports. With the Brent/Dubai spread narrowing further in recent weeks, making grades linked to the North Sea marker, like Forties, attractive to Asian buyers, further eastbound volumes are expected next month. Light/sweet crude values in the Atlantic Basin have come under pressure as supply disruptions have dissipated. According to latest data, Libyan crude output reached 1.3 mbpd last week, up from around 1.0 mbpd at the end of last year.

Stockpiles of iron ore at China’s major ports for the week ending January 27 stood at 101.3 Mt, according to U-Metal. This represented a week-on-week rise of 1.4 Mt. However, increased land-based stocks should be seen in the context of reduced floating storage. Capesize vessel queues off China’s main iron ore discharge ports have fallen by an estimated 35 vessels (5-6 Mt) in less than two weeks.

According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the country's daily crude steel production from the 01-10 January rose 3.9% from the last ten days of December to 1.691 Mt, rebounding to the highest level since late October.

Indian refineries, excluding Reliance’s second, export-based, 580 kbpd Jamnagar plant, processed 3.51 mbpd of crude oil during December, up by 0.8% yoy, according to the latest government data. State refiners increased throughput by 2.3% yoy, but this was largely offset by a 4.2% yoy decline in processing at Jamnagar’s primary 660 kbpd plant.

Bloomberg reports that automobile production from Japan’s top three car makers returned to normal levels in December, with positive implications for the country’s steel demand. Output from Toyota was up 17% year-on-year, production at Nissan rose 25% while Honda produced 11% more cars than a year ago.

Exports of Iraqi crude oil averaged 2.17 mbpd in 2011, up by 273 kbpd (14%) yoy, as production increased by 289 kbpd (12%) yoy, to 2.65 mbpd, Platts reports, using data provided by Iraq’s oil ministry. Output is expected to continue to grow this year, with infrastructure developments allowing exports levels to also rise. December saw a slight production fall, of 5 kbpd, from November, to 2.66 mbpd, whilst imports rose by 10 kbpd, to 2.15 mbpd.

US steel imports fell for the second consecutive month to a 2011-low of 1.8 Mt, down 5.8% on November and 33% lower than the 2011-high seen in May, according to preliminary data from the American Iron and Steel Institute. Total US imports in the whole of 2011 reached a 3-year high of 25.8 Mt, marking an increase of 19% on the previous year.

Chinese refiners have purchased a record 1.1 mbpd of West African crude for February-loading, up by 300 kbpd from January and an all-time high, Argus reports. Buyers turned to the region’s grades at the expense of Middle Eastern crude after Saudi Arabia raised February OSPs for Asian term customers and as a result of an on-going dispute with Iran over contract prices for 2012. A comparatively narrow Brent/Dubai spread added to the attractiveness of Brent-linked West African grades for buyers. Overall Asia-Pacific loadings of West African crude in February will average 1.8 mbpd, a 200 kbpd increase from January.

The world HRB export price climbed $24/t or 4% from the end of last year to $643/t, according to the World Steel Dynamics SteelBenchmarker. However, this is still $62/t or 9% lower than the year-ago level. January saw some modest gains for HRB prices from outside China: HRB steel prices in the US rose for a third consecutive month to a 7-month high of $816/t, EU HRB prices rose to a 3-month high of $643/t, up $31/t or 5% from the 2011-low. By contrast, Chinese HRB price struggled to rebound, currently standing at $560/t, which is 12 % below the 2011 high seen in end-August.

Preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance show negative annual growth in both Japanese iron ore and coal imports in 2011. December iron ore imports of 10.3 Mt marked a 6% decline on November and 13% year-on-year to the lowest level since June 2011. This took total imports in 2011 to 128.5 Mt, down 4% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Japan imported 14.4 Mt of coal in the same month, meaning that volumes were down for three consecutive months. Coal imports in 2011 of 175.2 Mt compared with 184.6 Mt in the whole of 2010.

Of the 686.1 Mt of iron ore shipped into China in 2011, around 75% came from the three exporters: Australia, Brazil and India, according to China Customs Statistics. The year saw a sharp decline in imports from India, with a fall of 23.7 Mt or 24% on the 2010 annual total to a 6-year low of 73.1 Mt. This is 34.4 Mt or 32% short of the record volume seen in 2009. Imports from Australia increased 31.2 Mt or 12% year-on-year to 296.7 Mt. Shipments from Brazil were up by 11.8 Mt or 9% year-on-year to 142.7 Mt, only 0.3 Mt higher than the previous peak seen in 2009. Imports from South Africa (+22% to 36.2 Mt) and Canada (+175% to 12.1 Mt) both recorded sizeable gains.

According to China’s Customs Statistics, Chinese coal imports from Indonesia rose 16% year-on-year to a new record of 65.5 Mt in 2011 out of an import total from all sources of 183 Mt. Imports from Australia fell for the second consecutive year to 32.6 Mt in 2011 mainly as a result of weather-related disruptions in coking coal supply in the 1h11. Longer-haul imports from South Africa and US both rose to 9.3 Mt and 4.9 Mt respectively, while imports from Canada fell 14% from its peak in 2010 to 4.5 Mt. The year also saw significant increases in overland coking coal imports from Mongolia, up 21% to 20.2 Mt.

The EU has implemented an immediate ban on any new contracts that involve the importing, buying or transportation of Iranian oil, Reuters reports. Existing contracts will remain exempt from the ban until 1 July.

Chinese net diesel imports in December surged by 140 kbpd from November, to 210 kbpd, but were 80 kbpd lower yoy, according to detailed customs data. December 2010 saw record net imports of 290 kbpd amidst acute shortages. At the same time, net gasoline exports fell to 161 kbpd, their lowest level since March 2009 and 199 kbpd lower yoy.

End-year data from the World Steel Association indicate a slowing in global crude steel output growth towards the end of 2011. December output of 117.1 Mt marked a minor improvement of 1.5% on the previous month and 1.7% year-on-year, a far slower annual rate of expansion than the 6.8% seen for the whole of 2011. A breakdown by country reveals some diverging trends in December. Production in Japan fell 8% annually to 8.4 Mt, the lowest month since September 2009, while Europe’s leading steel producer, Germany, saw output drop 5% YoY to 3.0 Mt, a two-year low. In China monthly output of 52.2 Mt was only marginally higher than December 2010. Steel mills in the US bucked the trend, however. At 7.3 Mt last month’s US production was up 10% year-on-year, faster than annual growth of 7% for the 2011 calendar year.

Petroplus has announced its intention to sell its French refinery, the 162 kbpd plant at Petit Couronne, Platts reports. The troubled firm was forced to shut the plant, as well as its 107.5 kbpd Antwerp and 68 kbpd Cressier refineries, and reduce operating rates at its 180 kbpd Coryton and 100 kbpd Ingolstadt sites, after lenders withdrew a $1bn credit line. Petroplus is also considering placing the Antwerp and Cressier refineries up for sale. Poor margins as a result of overcapacity and competition from emerging markets have seen a number of unprofitable refineries in the Atlantic Basin close in recent times, a factor that may limit the appeal of the Petit Couronne plant to any potential buyer.

Japanese crude steel production in December fell 3% on November to 8.4 Mt, with a decline of 8% year-on-year, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Association. December’s figure also marks the lowest monthly volume since September 2009. Total output in the whole of 2011 reached 107.6 Mt, down 1.8% year-on-year.

The U.S. State Dept. has rejected TransCanada’s proposal for the construction of the Alberta – USG Keystone XL pipeline, citing insufficient time to complete an environmental review prior to a 21 February deadline. Congress voted to bring forward the deadline for a decision, after an initial postponement by the State Dept. until after this year’s presidential election. TransCanada has stated its intent to resubmit its application, with hopes to commission the line in late 2014.

U.S. crude inventories fall, product stocks rise U.S. crude stocks fell 3.4 MB last week, to 331.2 MB, as imports declined 1.6 mbpd, to under 8.3 mbpd, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Energy. Crude inputs were down 352 kbpd, to 14.6 mbpd, as refinery utilisation slipped from 85.6% the previous week to 83.7%. Gasoline inventories rose 3.7 MB, to 227.5 mbpd, as imports increased 109 kbpd, to 553 kbpd, and demand dropped 182 kbpd. Distillate stocks were up 0.4 MB, at 148 MB, as imports inched 56 kbpd higher, to 219 kbpd.

Due to increased heating usage caused by relatively lower temperatures, December saw coal consumption in Japan rise by 3% year-on-year to 4.7 Mt, according to the Federation of Electric Power Companies. This represents the highest level since January 2011. However, Nuclear output continued to reduce, down by 76% year-on-year to 5.6 bn kWh.

In its latest monthly report, the IEA cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2012, to 1.1 mbpd, 200 kbpd lower than its previous estimate. Global consumption is now predicted to reach 90 mbpd this year, after demand fell 0.3 mbpd in the 4q11, its first drop since the credit crunch three years ago, due to weak economic growth and mild weather. The agency also warned it may reduce estimates further. December OPEC crude output rose by 240 kbpd, to 30.89 mbpd, the highest in over three years, due to a rapid recovery in supplies from Libya, and lesser increases from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Global refinery crude runs have been revised down by 250 kbpd and 170 kbpd for 4q11 and 1q12, to 74.8 mbpd and 74.9 mbpd, respectively.

Hovensa, a Hess and PDVSA joint venture, has announced that its 350 kbpd St. Croix refinery, in the U.S. Virgin Islands will shut by mid-February, Bloomberg reports. Losses at the plant have totalled $1.3bn over the last three years, according to a company statement. The shutdown is the latest in a series of Atlantic Basin refinery closures, with many struggling with weak margins, amidst faltering demand and competition from more sophisticated plants in other regions. Capacity at St. Croix had already been reduced by 30% in 1q11 in an attempt to reduce losses at the plant. The refinery was a significant source of fuel for the USAC, providing the region with 853 kbpd of gasoline, according to the EIA. With 698 kbpd of its own regional capacity shut, or earmarked for closure, in recent months, the reduction of supply from St. Croix is likely to further increase USAC gasoline import demand from elsewhere.