News archive January 2010

The US economy in the 4q09 grew by 5.7% on an annual basis -- the fastest quarterly growth rate over the past six years, according to the Commerce Department. However, US GDP shrank by 2.4% year-on-year in 2009, the lowest growth rate since 1946.

China's 2009 crude oil imports averaged 4.1 mbpd, representing an increase of more than 14% from the year before and allowing the country to overtake Japan as Asia's largest crude importer, reports Energy Intel. Producers from the Middle East were China's main suppliers, providing, on average, 1.96 mbpd (47.8% of total imports) of crude; Africa follows, supplying 1.23 mbpd (30.1%). Amongst individual nations, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia saw the biggest increase of exports to the Asian giant. Saudi Arabia provided 843 kbpd, an increase of 115 kbpd; Iraq 144 kbpd, up 107 kbpd; and Russia 307 kbpd, a 74 kbpd increase. Of the eleven major sources of the country's crude, only Oman and Venezuela saw a decrease in the volumes that they export to China.

Sustained strong demand in India boosted Indonesia and South Africa coal exports in 2009. According to McCloskey, the annualised rate from the first ten months put Indonesian coal exports to India in 2009 at 38.36 Mt, posting a massive increase of 47% on 2008. South Africa’s coal exports to India in Jan-Nov were 18.96 Mt, bringing the annualised rate to 20.68 Mt, which would represent a three-fold increase from 2008 total exports of 5.35 Mt.

According to the latest data from the US Department of Energy, crude oil inventories fell last week by 3.9 mbbl to total 326.7 mbbl. Imports declined by 673 kbpd to average 7.9 mbpd. Mogas was imported at an average of 823 kbpd, up 93 kbpd from the week before, whilst stocks gained 2 mbbl and stand at 229.4 mbbl. Distillate inventories total 157.5 mbbl, up 400 kbpd from the week before, as imports increased by 386 kbpd to average 658 kbpd. Refinery inputs averaged 13.6 mbpd during last week, a 200 kbpd decline week-on-week. Refinery utilisation was little changed at 78.5% of total capacity.

In the previous forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), worldwide economic growth for 2010 was predicted at 3.1%, whereas now the forecast has been raised to 3.9% after negative growth of 0.8% in 2009. Expansion of 4.3% is forecast for 2011.

Global recovery from recession has been led by emerging markets. Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to rise to 6% this year, following 2.1% growth in 2009. In contrast, growth in the advanced economies is now forecast at 2.1%, following a sharp decline of -3.2% in output last year. In 2011, both regions are projected to accelerate further, at 6.3% and 2.4% respectively.

The IMF now expects the US economy to expand by 2.7% this year, up from its previous estimate of 1.5% expansion. For China, the IMF predicts 10% growth this year and 9.7% in 2011.

Recently released data from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reveals that the country's oil output averaged 2.32 mbpd last year, a 141kbpd (5.7%) drop from 2008, reports Energy Intel. Production peaked in 2003 at an average of 3.41 mbpd, but has fallen every year since. Whilst 2010 is forecast to see a further decline, the coming on stream of a number of new small fields and ongoing production increases from the Alvheim field are set to limit this to less than 3%.

Coal exports from Colombia rose by 25% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year to 6.02 Mt in November 2009, the highest level since December 2008. However, exports in Jan-Nov 2009 fell by 8% year-on-year to 57.3 Mt. Exports to Europe for the first eleven months of 2009 rose by 10.7% to 34.7 Mt. Shipments to the Americas showed a sharp decline year-on-year, with a decrease of 27% to 19.8 Mt in Jan-Nov 2009.

Crude exports from the Former Soviet Union in December averaged a record 6.85 mbpd, over 170 kbpd more than the volumes exported in November, Argus reports. The figures for the last month of 2009 mean that for the year as a whole shipments averaged 6.65 mbpd, more than 560 kbpd greater than in 2008. Higher volumes of BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) Blend leaving Ceyhan and greater Azeri Light production were amongst the major contributing factors behind the increase. As 2010 begins, the commencements of shipments from Kozmino, the terminus of the ESPO (East Siberian -- Pacific Ocean) route, will send increasing volumes eastwards. With 215 kbpd heading along the route in January, Kozmino has become the third-largest handler of Russian oil behind Novorossiysk and Primorsk.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), US soya exports surged to a record total volume of 9.3 Mt in November 2009. Soyabean exports were 2.68 Mt higher than the previous high set in October 2009, with an increase of 70% to 8.02 Mt in November. Soyameal exports hit an all-time high of 1.26 Mt, representing a massive 82% jump month-on-month and 124% increase year-on-year.

In its latest forecast, the World Bank envisages that global economic recovery will proceed at a speedier rate than it had anticipated six months ago, Dow Jones reports. Then global growth for 2010 was predicted at 2.0%, whereas now expectations are for 2.7%. Slow down in 2009 is now thought to have been at 2.2% year-on-year, a less severe diminishment than the 2.9% contraction forecast last June. The bank's forecast for 2011 has remained at economic growth of 3.2%. Nevertheless, optimism is coupled with warnings that further recession is far from impossible. Selected regional growth forecasts are as follows:

2010 2011
Brazil 3.6% 3.9%
China 9.0% 9.0%
Eurozone 1.0% 1.7%
India 7.5% 8.0%
Japan 1.3% 1.8%
USA 2.5% 2.7%

China’s GDP growth accelerated by 8.7% year-on-year in 2009, exceeding the full-year growth target of 8%. The growth rate in the 4q09 was 10.7% on an annual basis - the fastest quarterly growth rate for two years, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The US Department of Energy's latest weekly summary of petroleum data reveals that US refinery inputs averaged 13.8 mbpd last week, a decrease of 181 kbpd from the week before. The country's refineries were operating at 78.4% of combined capacity, compared to 81.3% during the previous week. Crude oil imports fell by 355 kbpd week-on-week, to an average of 8.5 mbpd. This matches the average volumes of crude imported during the last four weeks, representing a year-on-year decline of 1.2 mbpd. Mogas imports fell 162 kbpd last week, averaging 730 kbpd, whilst distillates arrived at an average of 272 kbpd, a figure that represents nearly a 50% decline week-on-week. Crude inventories fell marginally to 330.6 mbbl, down 400 kbpd from the week before. Mogas stocks rose by 3.9 mbbl to 227.4 mbbl, with distillate reserves falling 3.3 mbbl to 157.1 mbbl.

Work to expand the capacity of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's (CPC) Tengiz -- Novorossiysk pipeline will begin this month, reports Argus. The line's current 692 kbpd capacity is to be increased to 1.35 mbpd by 2014. The project commences accompanied by the news that CPC shipped an average of 695.2 kbpd of crude oil in 2009, a 9.9% increase from the year before.

Coal imports into China in December climbed to their highest monthly level of 16.38 Mt, according to official customs data. The previous monthly high was 16.1 Mt recorded in June. As a result imports for the 2009 calendar year surged to 125.83 Mt, a massive hike from 40.8 Mt of imports in 2008.

North Sea crude and condensate production averaged 3.53 mbpd last year, down from 3.83 mbpd in 2008, Argus reports. UK output averaged 1.21 mbpd, a decline of 118 kbpd from the year before, whilst Norwegian volumes averaged 2.04 mbpd, a 143 kbpd drop from 2008 average daily output. Furthermore, the region's decline looks likely to continue in both the short and long-term future. Recent severe weather and scheduled maintenance are set to hamper production in early 2010, whilst reductions in exploration funding suggest declines will continue in years to come.

Bank lending played a key role in facilitating the extraordinary growth in Chinese mineral demand last year. According to the People’s Bank of China, China’s new yuan-denominated lending rose to 379.8 billion yuan from November’s 294.8 billion yuan. This brought China’s 2009 annual new lending up by 4.7 trillion yuan from a year earlier to an unprecedented volume of 9.6 trillion yuan.

In its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has maintained its forecast for global oil demand for both 2009 and 2010. Last year's demand is forecast to average 84.9 mbpd, 1.3 mbpd less than in 2008, whilst this year's demand is estimated at 86.3 mbpd. Non-OECD countries will be the main drivers of demand growth, with the OECD seeing only slow demand recovery, despite recent climatic conditions. As a result of higher OPEC and non-OPEC output, global supply in December averaged 86.2 mbpd, an increase of 270 kbpd month-on-month.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK industrial production in November rose by 0.4% from the previous month. Industrial output fell by 6% compared with November 2008. The figures give weight to the view that the UK exited recession in the 4q09.

Energy Intelligence estimate from export data that Venezuelan crude production averaged 2.53 mbpd in December, a 77 kbpd decline from November's estimated volumes. Total output for 2009 is estimated at an average of 2.5 mbpd, down 95 kbpd year-on-year. Exports for December fell by 195 kbpd to 1.88 mbpd, ensuring that the month saw the lowest volume loaded in 2009, which, as a whole, saw exports average 2.05 mbpd. The reduced exports were largely as a result of falls in loadings at the port of Jose, where an average of 946 kbpd were shipped during December.

US coal exports (including anthracite coal, excluding shipments to Canada) slipped by 0.72 Mt (-15%) from the 2009 high of 4.89 Mt set in October to 4.17 Mt in November, down by 0.92 Mt (-18%) year-on-year. Coal exports in the first eleven months of 2009 totalled 39.34 Mt, down by 20% year-on-year. Steam coal exports in Jan-Nov 2009 fell by 26% year-on-year to 11.12 Mt. In the same period, coking coal exports fell from 33.71 Mt one year earlier to 28.11 Mt, representing a 17% decline year-on-year

The latest data from the US Department of Energy show that last week refinery inputs in the country totalled 14.0 mbpd, an increase of 213 kbpd from the week before. Operation of units was at 81.3% of capacity, a 1.4% increase week-on-week. Crude inventories rose by 3.7 mbbl from the previous week to total 331.0 mbbl, with imports averaging 8.9 mbpd, an increase of 540 kbpd. Distillate stocks totalled 160.4 mbbl, up 1.4 mbbl from the previous week, whilst gasoline stocks were up by 3.8 mbbl to 223.5 mbbl. Imports of the two products were averaging 537 kbpd and 892 kbpd respectively, with distillates up by 248 kbpd and gasoline 108 kbpd week-on-week.

Chinese passenger car sales rose by 53% year-on-year to an all-time high of 10.3 million units in 2009, according to China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Total automobile sales rose by 46% year-on-year to 13.6 million units in 2009. Meanwhile, new car sales in the US plunged 21% year-on-year to a 27-year low of 10.43 million units. This is the first time that China has surpassed the US as the world’s largest auto market, mainly due to the central government’s stimulus package.

South Korea’s four refiners are planning to process an average of
between 2.24 and 2.26 mbpd of crude oil this month, up from 2.22 mbpd
in December, reports Dow Jones. This represents the first rise in two
months after refiners reduced their activity on refining losses.
Recent cold weather in the country and tighter supply in the wake of
current strong apparent demand has prompted the proposed increases.
Nevertheless, January’s planned runs are still down on the same period
last year as the mood amongst the country’s refining community remains
cautious, not least because global oil inventories remain high.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) expects to ship 737
kbpd of oil from Novorossiysk in January, an increase of around 6.9%
from December’s 689 kbpd schedule.

Preliminary customs data for December show a sharp rise in China's iron ore imports to a second-highest level of 62.2 Mt. This puts annual imports in 2009 at 628 Mt, a rise of 41% on 2008. If confirmed December's total would be almost double the monthly import total in January 2009.