News archive April 2010

The latest port loading programmes from Transneft reveal that Russian seaborne crude exports are set to reach 3.13 mb/d in May, a 151 kb/d increase from April's scheduled loadings, Energy Intel reports. Primorsk is set to ship 1.51 mb/d next month, 71 kb/d more than planned for April, Novorossiysk's programme sees loadings of 851 kb/d, a 58 kb/d m-o-m increase, and 189 kb/d are due to be exported from Gdansk, up from 145 kb/d this month. Shipments from Kozmino and Yuzhny are set to remain reasonably stable at 319 kb/d and 176 kb/d respectively, whilst Tuapse sees planned exports fall by 19 kb/d to 89 kb/d.

The US government has placed a ban on off-shore drilling in new areas whilst the oil spill off the coast of Louisiana is investigated. The spill, which resulted from the sinking of the BP-leased drilling rig "Deepwater Horizon", has now reached the shore. It is estimated that as much as 5 kb/d are currently spilling into the water.

Product exports from the Former Soviet Union averaged 2.65 mb/d, a 107 kb/d decrease from February and down 49 kb/d y-o-y, Argus reports. Exports of gasoil fell by 155 kb/d from a month earlier, gasoline by 78 kb/d and naphtha by 50 kb/d. There were also declines in shipments of VGO and jet fuel. Fuel oil exports rose by 155 kb/d m-o-m to reach an average of 1.11 mb/d.

Rising power demand due to a recovering economy and cold weather helped lift South Korea's imports of coal (including anthracite) to an 8-month high of 9.8 Mt in March, according to Korea Customs Statistics. Consequently 1q10 imports were 28 Mt, up 4 Mt on the same quarter last year. Over this period shipments from Indonesia jumped from 5.9 Mt to 10.4 Mt, while imports from Australia dropped by 2.3 Mt year-on-year to 9.9 Mt.

In its latest summary of weekly petroleum data, the EIA reveals that crude inputs at US refineries averaged 14.96 mb/d last week, their highest level since September last year. The increase ensured that the country's refineries were operating at 89.0% of total capacity. Nevertheless, crude stocks increased by 1.9 Mbbl to reach 357.8 Mbbl by the end of the week. Crude imports remained relatively stable, increasing by 68 kb/d to an average of 9.68 mb/d. Mogas stocks fell by 1.2 Mbbl to 223.7 Mbbl, whilst imports jumped 229 kb/d to an average of 985 kb/d. Distillate inventories increased again, this time by 2.9 Mbbl to a total of 151.8 Mbbl, as imports surged 146 kb/d from the week before to an average of 252 kb/d.

World Steel Dynamics' SteelBenchmarker puts world export prices for hot rolled band at $718/t in end-April, up $212/t on levels in end-November 2009, representing the highest level since October 2008. Significantly, however, China's HRB price remained at the same level from early April of $574. Most of the monthly rises came from outside China, the EU (+12% or $81/t to $742/t) and the USA (+6% or $42/t to $772/t).

US steel imports in March stood above 1 Mt for seven consecutive months, up by 29% from the previous month to 1.8 Mt. This marks the highest level since January 2009, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

The latest data from Korea National Oil Corp. reveals that the Middle East accounted for 1.79 mb/d of South Korea's 2.16 mb/d March crude imports, a 16.6% increase from the same month in 2009, Energy Intel reports. Saudi Arabia remains the country's primary supplier, providing 613 kb/d last month, a 38.8% increase year-on-year. Next comes Kuwait, which supplied 299 kb/d in March, up 112.1% from a year earlier. Elsewhere, Russia saw its exports to the republic jump by 36.5% y-o-y to 131 kb/d. Imports from Asia-Pacific fell by 32.2% to 219.2 kb/d as Australian shipments more than halved.

Mexican crude output averaged 2.607 mb/d, up slightly from the 2.602 mb/d produced during 2009 as a whole. The stabilisation has been attributed to increased production at the Ku-Maloob-Zaap field. Pemex, the state oil firm, anticipates production to average 2.601 mb/d in 2010.

Iron ore imports in Japan rose by 2.18 Mt (+22%) month-on-month to 11.87 Mt in March, the highest monthly volume since October 2008, and more than double the year-ago level, according to the provisional data from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. As a result, iron ore imports in the Japanese fiscal year 2009/10 (April 09- March 10) were 115.2 Mt compared with 128.5 Mt in the previous year.

Angola overtook Saudi Arabia as China's primary source of crude oil in March as an average of 1.08 mb/d was imported from the West African country. This represents a 98.7% increase year-on-year. Imports from Saudi Arabia still managed to increase by 29.2% y-o-y to 761 kb/d as China's overall crude imports reached an average of 4.98 mb/d last month, the second highest level on record. There were increases in imports from nearly all of the country's main providers, with particularly large increases in crude volumes arriving from Libya, Iraq and Kazakhstan.

Iraqi crude exports averaged 1.84 mb/d in March, down by 11% from the 2.07 mb/d exported the month before, Associated Press reports. The country's oil ministry cited bad weather as the reason for the decline. An average of 1.42 mb/d was shipped through the Middle East Gulf, with the remaining 0.42 mb/d exported via the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

March saw South Korean crude imports average 2.15 mb/d, a 160 kb/d, or 8.2%, increase from the same month in 2009, Reuters reports. The year-on-year increase follows two successive months of decline, although January and February 2009 saw refiners import particularly high volumes in anticipation of tariff increases. Despite the rise in imports, refinery runs in March were down 8.8% to an average of 2.20 mb/d.

In its latest summary of weekly petroleum data, the EIA reports a build in crude inventories of 1.9 Mbbl last week, leaving stocks at 355.9 Mbbl. Imports of crude increased by 733 kb/d over the same period to an average of 9.61 Mb/d, whilst refinery runs were down by 135 kb/d to 14.68 Mb/d. Refinery utilisation was at 85.9% of total capacity, a slight increase of 0.3% from a week earlier. Stocks of mogas increased last week by 3.6 Mbbl to 224.9 Mbbl, as imports rose by 185 kb/d to 756 kb/d. Distillate stocks built by 2.1 Mbbl to 148.9 Mbbl, whilst imports declined by 78 kb/d to 106 kb/d.

According to the World Steel Association, global steel output totalled 120.4 Mt in March, up by 31% year-on-year, representing the highest monthly total since May 2008. Annual production increases were seen in the US (+73% y-o-y to 6.9 Mt), the EU (+49% to 15.3 Mt) and Japan (+63% to 9.3 Mt). Chinese mills produced a monthly record of 55 Mt (22%).
The March production totals bring world output in the 1q10 to 342 Mt, around 13 Mt above the previous quarter and the highest quarterly total since the 2q08.

Crude oil inputs at China's refineries averaged 8.17 mb/d in March, a 17.7% increase from a year earlier, Dow Jones reports. March's volumes were down from February's record runs of 8.35 mb/d, but the government's decision last week to raise domestic gasoline and diesel prices could well encourage refiners to ramp up throughputs once again. Refinery runs during 1q10, at approximately 8.18 mb/d, were up 21.6% compared to the same period in 2009.

China's steel exports rose by 0.84 Mt (+34%) month-on-month to a year-to-date high of 3.33 Mt in March, almost double the year-ago level, according to customs statistics. Consequently, steel exports in the 1q10 climbed to 8.7 Mt. Although up 71% year-on-year, the 1q10 export total is still 0.2 Mt below the previous quarter.

May exports of CPC Blend from Novorossiysk are set to average 755 kb/d, an increase of 12% from this month's scheduled loadings, Argus reports. May will see the highest level of exports since January on the back of increased output from the Tengiz field, the crude from which forms the main component of the blend.

BTC Blend exports are expected to average 882.3 kb/d next month, the highest level so far this year and up 34% from this month's scheduled loadings.

Surging coal and iron ore prices have helped push China's steel price (wire rod) higher for the sixth consecutive weeks. The price has risen up by $13/t week-on-week to a year-to-date high of $648/t, representing the highest level since October 2008, according to World Steel Dynamics.

China's crude steel production rose by 23% year-on-year to a monthly all-time high of 54.97 Mt in March, according to latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. As a result the 1q10 output total also reached a new record of 158 Mt, an increase of 25% year-on-year.

The world export price for hot rolled band rose by 10% from end-March to $696/t, according to World Steel Dynamics' SteelBenchmarker, the highest level since October 2008. This has coincided with the increase in new quarterly contract prices for iron ore and coking coal. Most of April's increase was in China, up by $47/t (+9%) to a 19-month high of $573/t in contrast to the USA (+3% to $748/t).

In its latest summary of weekly petroleum data, the EIA reports a 2.2 Mbbl week-on-week drop in US crude inventories to 354 Mbbl, as crude runs reached 14.81 Mb/d, a 209 kbpd rise from the week before. Refineries operated at 85.6% of total operable capacity, 1.2% up on a week earlier. However, crude imports fell by 681 kbpd to 8.88 Mbpd. Mogas stocks fell by 800 kbbl to 79.8 Mbbl, as imports declined by 185 kbpd to 571 kbpd. Distillate inventories saw a build of 1.1 Mbbl to 146.8 Mbbl, with imports increasing by 31 kbpd to 184 kbpd.

The spot FOB price of Indian iron ore has returned to levels last seen in March 2008, according to data from U-metal. The FOB price for iron ore with Fe-content of 63.5% rose by $12/t week-on-week to $150/t at the end of last week, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. This took the delivered price in China to $175/t.

China’s new bank lending fell for the second consecutive month to 510.7 billion yuan in March, compared with 700 billion yuan in the pevious month, according to the People’s Bank of China. This brought nw lending in the 1q10 to 2.6 trillion yuan in the 1q10. China’s government has targeted an annual total of 7.5 trillion yuan, following last year’s massive 9.6 trillion yuan.