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CPC Blend exports are scheduled at 646 kb/d in April, a 38 kb/d drop from planned loadings during March.

According to the latest data from the EIA, US crude stocks rose by 2.1 MB, to 352.8 MB, last week as imports increased by 306 kb/d, to 8.99 mb/d. Meanwhile, US refineries processed 14.35 mb/d of crude, up 167 kb/d from the week before. Overall refinery utilisation stood at 84.1% of total capacity, up from 83.4%. Mogas stocks dropped to 219.7 MB, a 5.3 MB draw, whilst imports increased by 47 kb/d, to 695 kb/d. Inventories have fallen by 21.4 MB over the last five weeks, as refiners sell off winter grades. Distillate inventories were unchanged at 152.6 MB last week, with imports rising by 31 kb/d, to 192 kb/d.

US steel imports fell 16% month-on-month in February to 1.6 Mt, according to the American Iron and Steel Institute. This represents the lowest monthly import volume since February 2010. However, imports in the first two months were still 3.5 Mt, up 20% year-on-year.

This month sees 866 kb/d of European crude distillation capacity sitting idle, as the spring maintenance season peaks, Argus reports. This equates to more than 5% of the region's total capacity. April will see CDU turnarounds fall to 333 kb/d. Around 334 kb/d of Mediterranean capacity is offline this month, a figure that falls to just 6 kb/d in April, suggesting that the full impact of the loss of Libyan volumes may still be to come.

North Sea output averaged 3.24 mb/d in February, a 56 kb/d decline from the month before. UK production fell 20 kb/d, to 1.10 mb/d, whilst Norwegian output dropped 35 kb/d, to 1.86 mb/d.

Latest trade data shows a significant decrease in Chinese coal imports as a result of weather-related disruptions in several key load areas. Coking coal imports collapsed by almost two-thirds in February,
falling below 2 Mt for the first time since May 2009, according to China Customs Statistics. Meanwhile Chinese steam coal shipments dropped 57% from January to 3.72 Mt. Total imports from Indonesia fell by 3.3 Mt (-57%) from January to 2.5 Mt, whereas shipments from Australia dropped 2.3 Mt (-61%) to 1.5 Mt. Long-haul shipments from South Africa (0.2 Mt), Canada (0.2 Mt) and the US (0.3 Mt) also suffered a severe decline in the same month. There were no shipments from Colombia to China in February.

Latest data from the World Steel Association show a 9% month-on-month decline in global crude steel production in February. However, production last month amounted to 116.6 Mt, which was 9.5 Mt higher than the year-ago level. An annual increase was registered in the majority of steel making regions, including the US (+5.6% to 6.6 Mt), the EU (+7.9% to 14.4 Mt), China (+9.7% to 54.3 Mt) and Japan (+5.7% to 8.9 Mt).

Asia-Pacific buyers have secured 1.45 mb/d of April-loading West African crude, a fall of 250 kb/d from March, and the lowest level in 18-months, Argus reports. The fall came as Chinese buyers, deterred by high prices and a widening of the Brent-Dubai spread, reduced their purchases by over 300 kb/d, to 630 kb/d. Having purchased around 1.0 mb/d of February and March-loading West African crude, Chinese refiners are well-stocked and able to use inventories to make up for next month's lower volumes. Indian buying remains strong thanks to robust middle-distillate demand, with April-loading purchases averaging 665 kb/d, up from 630 kb/d in March. Firm transatlantic demand, as refiners look ahead to the summer driving season, has helped increase West African premiums. European buyers have favoured BTC Blend, Saharan Blend and Forties in their attempts to replace lost Libyan volumes.

With around 25% of Japanese refining capacity offline after last week's earthquake, oil companies are looking to resell ESPO Blend cargoes, Argus reports. Both Cosmo Oil and JX Nippon Oil have offered April loading 100 kt cargoes for resale. Japanese demand for the Russian grade may well stay weak in the next few months as crude runs remain depressed, and the country looks to import oil products in order to make up for lost output.

According to the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), all but three of the country's refineries that were affected by last Friday's earthquake have now recommenced operations, Dow Jones reports. JX Holding's 145 kb/d Sendai and 252 kb/d Kashima plants, as well as Cosmo's 220 kb/d Chiba refinery remain offline. The PAJ chairman, Akihiko Tembo, expects Japanese crude runs to recover to 3.4 mb/d by the end of this month. In the meantime, 4.0 MB of oil products that had been due for export from Japan before the end of March have now been cancelled. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry have asked a number of refineries to increase their operating rates to 95% of total capacity, up from around a typical 80%. Japan will also turn to foreign suppliers to help make up any shortfall. S-Oil of South Korea will provide 2.4 MB of products, whilst Japan has asked Indonesia to increase its shipments of crude oil, which could be used for direct burning.

Export prices for world HRB steel maintained their strong level in mid-March, at $771/t, according to WSD's SteelBenchmarker. Latest data show further gains in both the US and the EU steel markets, rising to the highest level since Sep/Oct 2008, up 19% and 20% from early this year to $958/t and $838/t respectively. By contrast, there has been a further fall in the Chinese steel market since February, with a 6% decline month-on-month to $593/t.

Coal imports into China in February plunged to the lowest monthly level since March 2009 of 6.8 Mt, representing a massive decline of 59% month-on-month, according to major media sources. The first two months of 2011 totalled 23.3 Mt, down 25% from the corresponding period last year.

According to the latest data from the EIA, US crude stocks rose by 1.7 MB last week, to 350.6 MB, after imports rose by an average of 381 kb/d, to 8.68 mb/d. Crude inputs at the country's refineries increased by 239 kb/d, to 14.18 mb/d, taking overall refinery utilisation to 83.4% of total capacity, up from 82.0% a week before. Meanwhile, mogas imports dropped 113 kb/d, to 761 kb/d, contributing to a 4.2 MB fall in inventories, which ended the week at 225.0 MB. Gasoil inventories were down 2.6 MB to 152.6 MB, with imports declining by 91 kb/d, to 161 kb/d.

In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA has revised up its 2010 global oil demand estimate by 100 kb/d, to 87.9 mb/d, equivalent to growth of 2.9 mb/d yoy. The demand forecast for this year is increased by 90 kb/d, to 89.4 mb/d. Given the current uncertainty as to the impact of recent events in Japan, the IEA have not taken these into account when making their calculations. Meanwhile, global oil supply is reported to have reached a record high of 88.97 mb/d in February, despite OPEC production falling by 95 kb/d to 30.05 mb/d. An average monthly loss of 190 kb/d from Libyan output was offset to some extent by increased MEG production. Excluding Libya, OPEC-11 spare capacity stands at 4.08 mb/d, its lowest level since the end of 2008.

The Japanese government will permit oil companies to release 8.9 MB of crude oil from stocks in order to cover any supply disruption arising from last week's devastating events. The tsunami that followed the earthquake on Friday has resulted in significant loss of life and the destruction of a number of towns and villages. In terms of the oil and shipping industries, approximately 1.4 mb/d (>25%) of Japanese refining capacity is currently offline, whilst berthing operations have been halted at many terminals.

Chinese steel production in February grew 9.7% year-on-year to 54.31 Mt, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. However, this marks a decline from the revised January output total of 59.9 Mt.

Today's earthquake and tsunami in Japan has caused the closure of several of the country's refineries in the eastern part of the country, along with 11 nuclear power reactors and ports in the Tokyo Bay area. A fire at Cosmo Oil's 220 kb/d refinery in Chiba is reported to be spreading, having started in the plants storage tanks, thus closing the refinery. The company has also halted all loading operations and is deberthing all vessels at the refinery. JX Nippon Oil and Energy has also shut its 145 kb/d Sendai, 189 kb/d Kashima and 270 kb/d Negishi refineries, totalling a combined 824 kb/d of capacity offline. Major units at TonenGeneral's 335 kb/d Kawasaki refinery have also been suspended. A further 600 kb/d in the region, however, has been reported to be operating normally, although Showa Shell has announced it has halted shipments at refineries in Keihin and Yokkaichi. Japan is the world's third-largest oil consumer, with oil demand averaging 4.42 mb/d in 2010, according the IEA. Crude imports to the country averaged 3.7 mb/d in 2010, totalling just over 4 mb/d in January 2011.

According to preliminary Chinese trade data, the country imported 5.22 mb/d of crude oil in February, a 370 kb/d increase from a year earlier, and up 70 kb/d from January. Last month's average daily imports were the third highest on record, as refiners increased operations in anticipation of fuel retail price increases that duly came on 20th February. Product imports last month of 3.30 million MT were down 550,000 MT from January, but up 410,000 MT yoy. February product exports totalled 1.86 million MT, down 280,000 MT mom, but up 260,000 MT yoy.

According to the latest data from the EIA, US stocks of crude oil rose by 2.5 MB last week, to 348.9 MB, after imports rose by 290 kb/d, to 8.30 mb/d. The country's refineries processed 13.94 mb/d last week, a 145 kb/d increase from a week earlier, whilst overall refinery utilisation increased from 80.9%, to 82.0%. Meanwhile, mogas inventories declined by 5.5 MB, to 229.2 MB. Imports also dropped, falling 47 kb/d, to 761 kb/d. Distillate stocks were down 4.0 MB, at 155.2 MB, despite imports rising 87 kb/d, to 252 kb/d. Earlier this week, the US government said that, in light of the ongoing disruption to oil production in Libya, it viewed using the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as an 'option', Reuters reports.

Reports have emerged that storage tanks at the Es Sider terminal were bombed by pro-Gadaffi forces earlier today. The attack followed the closing of the Ras Lanuf refinery, as employees fled amidst intense fighting in the town, Bloomberg reports. According to an official, the refinery itself remains undamaged.

Combined coal exports from Hay Point and Dalrymple Bay fell 18% month-on-month in February to 4.56 Mt, according to the North Queensland Bulk Port Authority. This was due to a 30% decline from January in exports from Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal to 2.65 Mt, the lowest level since February 2009 and a fall of 34% year-on-year. Meanwhile coal exports from Hay Point grew 9% month-on-month in February to 1.91 Mt but this is still 25% lower year-on-year.

Kuwait's oil minister today told reporters that OPEC Secretary General, Abdulla El-Badri is communicating with members to discuss whether the group should hold an emergency meeting to consider an increase in crude production, Bloomberg reports. Crude oil prices fell as a result of the news.

Elsewhere, Mexican crude production reached 2.58 mb/d in January, up 10 kb/d from the month before and the highest level in eight months, Energy Intel reports. January exports averaged 1.44 mb/d, down 57 kb/d from December.

Combined crude oil output from OPEC’s twelve members averaged 29.9
mb/d during February, a 140 kb/d decline from January production
levels, Argus reports. The fall came as a result of lower production
from Libya and Nigeria. Libyan output fell by 210 kb/d last month, to
1.37 mb/d, as the ongoing political turmoil emerged. Nigerian
production averaged 2.19 mb/d, down 140 kb/d from the previous month.
Saudi Arabian output rose by 200 kb/d, to 8.8 mb/d, suggesting that,
in terms of volume, the country is replacing lost Libyan output.
Shipping data, however, indicates that the organisation’s leading
producer had already boosted output prior to the emergence of
disruption in Libya. Negligible declines were witnessed in Iran, which
produced 3.65 mb/d in February, whilst the UAE and Iraq saw a slight
mom increase in output to 2.35 mb/d and 2.76 mb/d respectively.
Production in all other member states was unchanged from a month
earlier.

According to the IEA’s latest update, Libyan crude output is estimated
to have dropped to around 600 kb/d, whilst exports last week are said
to have averaged between 500-600 kb/d. After rare protests in Saudi
Arabia last week, the country has officially banned demonstrations.
The move comes ahead of a planned ’day of rage’ this Friday.

Japan imported 4.02 mb/d during January, a 1.7% fall year-on-year, and down 1.9% from December, Energy Intel reports. Imports from Japan's leading supplier, Saudi Arabia, fell by 8.3% yoy, to 1.11 mb/d. Oman's exports to Japan also fell significantly. Its shipments fell by 143 kbd yoy, to 94 kb/d. Volumes imported from Russia rose by 71.0% yoy to 257 kb/d, thanks to the commencement of shipments from the Pacific port of Kozmino. Shipments from the UAE, at 923 mb/d, were up 19.9% yoy.

South Korea's January crude imports rose 11.0% yoy, and by 7.0% from a month before, to 2.69 mb/d. The rise came largely as a result of a 131.0% increase in shipments from Qatar, which averaged 310 kb/d, and a 53.0% increase in Iranian shipments, which rose to 302 kb/d.