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In its latest monthly report, the IEA has made a 100 kb/d downward revision to its 2011 global oil demand forecast, which now stands at 89.5 mb/d. This would represent yoy growth of 1.2 mb/d. The forecast for 2012 demand was revised up by 100 kb/d, to 91.1 mb/d, on the back of higher anticipated oil-fired power generation in Japan. The agency provisionally estimates that global oil demand growth slowed to zero in June, as high prices and slowing economic growth took their toll.

According to the latest data from the EIA, US commercial crude inventories dropped 5.2 MB last week, to 349.8 MB, as crude inputs at the country's refineries rose to 15.62 mb/d, up by 135 kb/d from a week earlier, and the highest weekly level since January 2008. Refiners took delivery of 2.5 MB from the SPR, which now stands at 717.3 MB. Overall refinery utilisation reached 90.0% of total capacity, up from 89.3% a week earlier. Crude imports were fairly stable, falling by just 34 kb/d, to 9.10 mb/d. Mogas stocks fell by 1.6 MB, to 213.6 MB, whilst imports dropped by 212 kb/d, to 633 kb/d. Distillate inventories were 0.7 MB lower, at 151.5 MB, with imports 106 kb/d lower, at 99 kb/d.

According to the latest customs data, Chinese crude imports averaged 4.61 mb/d in July, down by 220 kb/d from June, as refinery maintenance weighed on demand. Imports were 102 kb/d higher year on year, however, compared with a 630 kb/d yoy drop last month. Meanwhile, product imports fell by 0.32 million MT from June, to 3.08 million MT, but were 0.30 million MT higher yoy. Product exports totalled 2.28 million MT, 0.24 million MT higher than last month and 0.26 million MT lower than a year earlier.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Chinese refineries processed 8.83 mb/d of crude oil in July, a 5.9% increase year-on-year, Reuters reports. This is 2.0% higher than during June, the first month in over two years in which inputs fell yoy. Nevertheless, throughputs were at their second lowest level so far this year during July, as ongoing maintenance, as well as a fire at a PetroChina plant, reduced runs. Preliminary oil trade data is due to be released tomorrow.

Iron ore shipments from Port Hedland in July slipped by 1.1 Mt to 17.5 Mt from the record volume of 18.6 Mt in June. This compares with 12.9 Mt in February and 14.6 Mt in the same month last year, port authority official data showed. China remained the main export destination, down 9% month-on-month to 12.6 Mt.

Iron ore imports into Australia in June reached 38.3 Mt (wet basis), up 2.0 Mt on the same month last year, according to trade data. This takes the 2q11 total to 112.5 Mt, marking a rebound (up 15%) on the previous quarter. However, the 2q11 export volume still fell short of the record 114.0 Mt exported in the 4q10.

The latest estimates from Argus point to OPEC output of 29.98 mb/d last month, a 230 kb/d increase from June and a level close to that witnessed prior to the disruption of Libyan supplies. Saudi Arabia lifted production by 200 kb/d, to 9.70 mb/d, although reports suggest that exports were relatively stable, as the extra output was utilised to meet peak domestic electricity demand. Angolan output rose by 160 kb/d, to 1.66 mb/d, after maintenance ended at the Greater Plutonio field. Both Nigerian and Venezuelan production rose by 50 kb/d, to 2.40 mb/d and 3.35 mb/d respectively. Gains were offset, however, by declines elsewhere. Iraqi output fell by 100 kb/d, to 2.65 mb/d; Iran saw production decline by 20 kb/d, to 3.63 mb/d; whilst output from the UAE was 30 kb/d lower, at 2.50 mb/d. Libyan production is now deemed to have ceased entirely, compared with estimated output of 80 kb/d in June. Meanwhile, production in Kuwait, Qatar, Algeria and Ecuador was stable.

Japan’s crude imports fell 4.4% year-on-year in June to an average 3.05 mb/d, taking total imports for the 1h11 to an average 3.56 mb/d, 4.5% lower on the year, reports EnergyIntel. For the second consecutive month, there were no imports from Iraq, while shipments from Russia slumped almost 63% to 82 kb/d. Volumes from Saudi Arabia were down 6% at 919 kb/d, while levels from the UAE were up 45% at 894 kb/d. Domestic consumption of oil products fell 2.7% on the year to average 2.93 mb/d.

Coal exports from South Africa’s Richards Bay Coal Terminal slipped to 4.4 Mt in July, down 0.4 Mt on June and below year-to-date monthly average of 4.6 Mt, port authority official data show. Total exports in the first seven months of this year were 31.8 Mt, down 6% year-on-year. Annualised exports for 2011 are now 54.6 Mt, well far below this year’s latest revised export target of 63 Mt.

According to latest government data, Indian refineries processed 3.45 mb/d of crude oil in June, a 150 kb/d increase from a year earlier, Argus reports. The rise came exclusively as a result of increased runs at state-run refineries, where 2.45 mb/d of crude oil was processed. Processing at independent plants was steady compared with a year earlier, at 1.0 mb/d. Government data does not include inputs at Reliance's second, 580 kb/d, export-based Jamnagar refinery.

Latest trade shows that a gradual recovery in Japanese coal imports after March’s earthquake. According to the Ministry of Finance, the country’s coal imports rose for the second consecutive month to 14.2 Mt in June, compared with 12.9 Mt in April and a pre-earthquake level of 15.6 Mt in January. Total imports in the 1h11 were 86.3 Mt, 4% lower than the corresponding period last year.

According to the latest E.I.A. data, US crude imports dropped by 706 kb/d last week, to 9.13 mb/d. This was 5.1% lower than the equivalent week last year, whilst thirteen-week average imports were 6.7% lower year on year. Demand for imports was dampened by the release of 4.5 MB of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Commercial inventories, meanwhile, saw a 1.0 MB build, to 355.0 MB. Crude inputs at U.S. refineries averaged 15.49 mb/d last week, up 129 kb/d from the week before. Overall refinery utilisation rose from 88.3%, to 89.3%, of total capacity over the same period. Mogas stocks posted a 1.7 MB rise, to 215.2 MB, as imports rose by 183 kb/d, to 845 kb/d. Distillate inventories were up by 0.4 MB, to 152.3 MB, with imports rising by 44 kb/d, to 205 kb/d.

Latest trade data from Customs Service indicated that South Korean iron ore imports surged to an all-time high of 6.1 Mt in June, up 30% month-on-month. Most of the monthly rise was due to increased shipments from Australia, which rose to a record monthly volume of 4.5 Mt in June from 3.2 Mt in May. Total South Korean imports in January-June rose to 32.1 Mt, up 17% from the corresponding period last year.

The release of 30 MB of crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has reduced the country’s buying of West African crude for August loading, Argus reports. With the drop in demand, the region’s grades premiums over Atlantic basin marker, North Sea Dated, have narrowed, prompting European refiners to increase their purchases. As much as 1.0 mb/d of August-loading West African crude has been taken by European buyers, compared with usual liftings of around 500 kb/d. Buying from the Asia-Pacific has also increased. Chinese refiners are taking 800 kb/d this month, up by more than 60 kb/d from July, and the highest level since March, whilst Indonesian and Taiwanese purchases have increased significantly from last month.

July saw a big decline in coal shipments from Gladstone, down 1.4 Mt or 26% on the previous month to 3.9 Mt, data from port authority indicated. Shipments in January-July of this year totalled 25 Mt, 9.8 Mt or 28% lower than in the corresponding period last year, evidence of the extent of the weather-related disruption earlier this year. Meanwhile, coal exports from the Carrington and Kooragang terminals at Newcastle fell 0.4 Mt or 5% month-on-month to 8.1 Mt, according the Port Waratah Coal Service (PWCS). This took total exports in the first seven months of this year to 54.9 Mt compared with 55.5 Mt in the corresponding period last year. The data exclude the NCIG terminal, which became operational last year.

Apparent oil demand in China dropped by 570 kb/d yoy, to 9.26 mb/d, in June, Argus reports. This was the first yoy drop in combined domestic production and net imports for eight months. Net crude imports dropped to 4.74 mb/d last month, as more than 580 kb/d of processing capacity was shut down for either scheduled or unplanned maintenance. Crude runs are expected to have fallen further in July, as poor margins have deterred refiners from increasing throughput. Stronger demand earlier in the year, however, ensured that apparent demand was 640 kb/d higher yoy, at 9.57 mb/d.

Coal miners from South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers have agreed a pay settlement which has put an end to a week-long strike, according to Reuters. Coal producers have warned that 24 hours are needed after miners return to work before normal output levels can be achieved.

Latest data from state oil firm, Pemex, reveal that Mexican crude production averaged 2.54 mb/d during June, down 11 kb/d from May. Technical problems at two offshore fields reduced output for the month, Energy Intel reports. Nevertheless, exports rose by 58 kb/d from the month before, to 1.43 mb/d.

June preliminary data from the American Iron and Steel Institute showed that US steel imports continued to stand above 2 Mt for four consecutive months. Imports in June slipped 10% from the 31-month high of 2.7 Mt in May to the current level of 2.4 Mt. This took imports in the first half of this year to 13.3 Mt, 2.7 Mt or 25% higher than in the corresponding period last year.

World grain trade (wheat+coarse grains, excluding soya) is forecast to edge higher in 2011/12 (July-June) to 243.9 Mt compared with 242.1 Mt in the 2010/11 crop year, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Annual declines in exports are forecast from Australia (-0.2 Mt to 23.3 Mt), Canada (-1.3 Mt to 20.0 Mt), the EU (-10.2 Mt to 18.2 Mt) and the USA (-4.6 Mt to 83.1 Mt). The IGC has revised its forecast for Argentina in 2011/12 up by 0.9 Mt to 26.9 Mt. Following the lifting of the Russian grain export ban from 1 July, combined exports from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are projected to rise 20.4 Mt to 41.8 Mt in 2011/12. This would offset fully the annual declines in projected exports from the five major exporting countries.

As Tropical Storm Don approaches the US Gulf and the Texas coast, oil producers have begun to evacuate staff and shut in production at a number of oil platforms, Reuters reports. Anadarko have reportedly have temporarily ceased 310 kb/d of production, with BP, Shell and Exxon said to have shut in as much as 200 kb/d, 100 kb/d and 8 kb/d respectively. According to the National Hurricane Center, Don is on course for Corpus Christi, a refining centre to the west of Houston.

According to latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, China’s daily crude steel production between 11-20 July was down slightly by 0.26% on the first ten days to 1.94 Mt, representing the lowest level since late-May.

According to the latest data from the EIA, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) saw a 2.3 MB draw last week, as the 30 MB barrels of crude oil offered as part of the IEA’s collective action began to be delivered to refiners. Commercial stocks of crude oil, meanwhile, dropped by 2.3 MB, to 354.0 MB. Crude oil imports averaged 9.84 mb/d, up by 497 kb/d from the week before. Crude inputs at the country’s refineries dropped by 261 kb/d, to 15.36 mb/d, whilst overall refinery utilisation slipped to 88.3% of total capacity, down from 90.3% a week earlier. Mogas stocks rose by 1.0 MB, to 213.5 MB, with imports dropping by 219 kb/d, to 662 kb/d. Distillate stockes were up for the third successive week, rising by 3.4 MB, to 151.8 MB. Imports of the product were 69 kb/d higher, at 161 kb/d.

World export prices for hot rolled band from the World Steel Dynamics’ SteelBenchmarker continued to fall, down $25/t or 3% from one month ago to $693/t at end-July, the lowest point since early January. The current prices mark $80/t or 10% decline on the year-to-date peak at February. The HRB steel prices in the US and the EU declined at an even faster rate. The US prices dropped to a year-to-date of $770/t, down $64/t or 8% month-on-month, while the EU price of $761/t was down $37/t or 5% month-on-month. By contrast, China’s HRB price remained relatively firm, up $10/t from end-June to $630/t.

The price of Chinese wire rod rose for the fourth consecutive week, up $15/t week-on-week to $759/t on July 22, according to World Steel Dynamics. The current price represents the highest level since August 2008 and marks a gain of $178/t from the year-ago level.