According to market reports from the Chicago Board of Trade, there have now been 17 outbreaks of bird flu in China since mid-October, prompting concern that China's demand for feedgrain may be reduced in the short term. Furthermore, 4q05 soyabean shipments from the US have been slower than in recent years. This led to speculation earlier in the week that the US Department of Agriculture may lower its forecast for US soyabean exports for the 2005/06 trade year, which currently stands at 29.3 Mt.
Meanswhile, the International Grains Council has left its coarse grain import forecast for 2005/06 (July/June) relatively unchanged at 103.1 Mt - up 0.9 Mt year-on-year. It has raised its projection for China’s 05/06 exports from 3.0 Mt last month to 5.0 Mt. Conversely, the IGC’s 05/06 coarse grain export forecast for the US has been lowered from 56.1 Mt to 54.3 Mt. The IGC has made very few alterations to its wheat import projections. The IGC predicts that world imports will total 108.9 Mt in 2005/06 compared with 109.3 Mt in the last trade year.
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Mexico's Crude Production Declines In Oct
Mexico's crude production was subdued in Oct as state company Pemex apparently first emptied out some crude that built up during storm outages at US refineries in Sept, reports Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. The export mix also diversified, with the first flows to the Pacific region since March and a record 327k b/d shipped to Europe. Crude production dropped 4.3%, or 146k b/d, to 3.2m b/d in Oct compared to a month earlier due to lower offshore volumes. Total crude production was seen to fall 2.1% when compared to Jan-Sept '04, and although refiners increased product output, net product imports jumped to 277k b/d, the largest monthly average since Oct '00, reports PIW.
28/11/2005
High Levels of Coal Exports from Russian Ports
October recorded high levels of coal exports emanating from Russian ports, according to McCloskey, with 5.75 Mt being shipped for the month. Murmansk, in particular, has performed remarkably with 9.1 Mt exported in the first 10 months of 2005, compared to the 8.9 Mt exported in the whole of last year. Across all Russian ports, coal shipments reached 53.5 Mt, compared with the 50 Mt exported last year.
28/11/2005
Concern Over Bird Flu Effect on Feedgrain Demand
According to market reports from the Chicago Board of Trade, there have now been 17 outbreaks of bird flu in China since mid-October, prompting concern that China's demand for feedgrain may be reduced in the short term. Furthermore, 4q05 soyabean shipments from the US have been slower than in recent years. This led to speculation earlier in the week that the US Department of Agriculture may lower its forecast for US soyabean exports for the 2005/06 trade year, which currently stands at 29.3 Mt.
24/11/2005
US Gulf Coast Production Recovers Slowly
About 60% of the lost oil and gas production following the US Gulf Coast hurricanes has been restored, although not until 2 months after Rita hit, while the remainder will take much longer, reports Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. Planned additions to production have also been delayed and the total supply loss from previously projected levels will still reach almost 500k b/d in 1q06. As of last week, over 600k b/d of oil production remained off line on the Gulf Coast, which compares with pre-storm levels of over 1.5m b/d. Some restorations are not expected to be completed until next year, e.g. the main platform in the Shell Mars complex, with output of over 100k b/d, will not be back in service until the second half of ’06, while Chevron’s 40k b/d Typhoon may not be back at all. 4q05 oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is being halved by the slow recovery, only 900k b/d is now expected versus 1.88m b/d forecast before the storms, while full year output has been reduced by 460k b/d, reports PIW. By the end of ’06 levels are forecast to still be 250k b/d lower than pre-storm projections.
24/11/2005
US Distillate Stocks Up, Imports Down
US distillate fuel stocks continued to grow by 1.1m bbl last week to 124.5m bbl despite imports plummeting by 21.6% to 429k b/d, the latest data from the US Department of Energy shows. Distillate import levels still remain 43% higher year-on-year, while stocks are only 8% higher over the same period. Crude stocks were on the increase again, up 0.4m bbl to 321.8m bbl, partly due to a 519k b/d rise in imports. Import levels are now 10.2m b/d, 10% up on a year ago. Gasoline stocks also inched up 0.2m bbl to 200.4m bbl helped by a 34k b/d increase in imports, levels now stand at over 1.1m b/d, 48% up on a year ago. Refinery utilisation was up another 1.9% from the previous week at 88.1%.
23/11/2005
Lower Crude Imports For South Korea
Crude oil imports into South Korea fell to 2.3m b/d in Oct, 6.5% lower year-on-year, and were slightly lower from September. Softer demand levels helped oil product inventories rise by almost 2% y-o-y, however, according to the latest data from Korea National Oil Corp. South Korean oil demand in Oct dropped 8.3% to 1.9m b/d year-on-year after a 0.7% rise in Sept, bringing average oil demand growth in the year-to-date to just 1.3% due to at least 3 of South Korea's major petrochemical companies having their routine maintenance in October. Refinery crude runs rose 1.5% to 2.4m b/d in October year-on-year, and were up 5% from Sept, the country's total refining
capacity is 2.74m b/d. Exports of refined petroleum products rose 9.3% to 24m bbls last month from a year ago. South Korea is the world's fourth-largest crude importer.
capacity is 2.74m b/d. Exports of refined petroleum products rose 9.3% to 24m bbls last month from a year ago. South Korea is the world's fourth-largest crude importer.
22/11/2005
Vietnam Due To Start Construction Of First Refinery
Construction of Vietnam’s first oil refinery will get under way next week. The Dung Quat refinery in central Quang Ngai province will have an annual refining capacity of 132k b/d of crude oil, reports China View. The National Assembly of Vietnam recently approved a resolution on speeding up the construction of the refinery so that it will become
operational in late ’08 or early ’09. Once completed it will meet some 40% of the local demand for petroleum products. Vietnam exported nearly 0.37m b/d of crude in the first 10 months of the year, down 7.2% against the same period last year. Imports of petroleum products were up 4.7% at over 9.6m tons, according to the country’s General Statistics Office. This move towards self-sufficiency could potentially reduce the number of short haul voyages within East Asia whilst causing a rise in long haul trade.
operational in late ’08 or early ’09. Once completed it will meet some 40% of the local demand for petroleum products. Vietnam exported nearly 0.37m b/d of crude in the first 10 months of the year, down 7.2% against the same period last year. Imports of petroleum products were up 4.7% at over 9.6m tons, according to the country’s General Statistics Office. This move towards self-sufficiency could potentially reduce the number of short haul voyages within East Asia whilst causing a rise in long haul trade.
22/11/2005
Chinese Steel Output Hits New High in October
The latest data from the International Iron and Steel Institute show that China produced 31.7 Mt of steel in October (+18.8% year-on-year), whilst India produced 3.3 Mt (+20% YOY). Other traditional steel-making centres witnessed YOY output falls last month, with US September output totalling 8.0 Mt (-8.2%), production in the EU-25 was 16.4 Mt (-2.6%) and FSU output reached 9.2 Mt (-2.2%). Other countries witnessed their YOY output falling in October, with Taiwan producing 1.6 Mt (-5.9%), Korea reaching 4.3 Mt (-0.6%) and Japanese production totalling 9.7% (-0.6%). The IISI data show that world steel production rose 0.3 % YOY in October to 96.6 Mt with the total for the first ten months of the year hitting 915.4 Mt compared with 862.4 Mt in the first ten months of 2004.
18/11/2005
OPEC Revises Its Global Oil Demand Forecasts
OPEC forecasts world oil demand to grow by 1.2m b/d, or 1.4% in ’05 to average 83.3m b/d, reports AFP. OPEC’s forecast growth rate for the world economy has risen to 4.3% for ’05 and is expected to be 4.1% in ’06. OPEC also increased it’s demand forecast for ’06 to 1.52m b/d, or 1.8% to average 84.8m b/d, claiming that a brighter economic outlook, vigorous growth in developing countries and a rebound in Chinese apparent demand had demolished the case that high prices were destroying demand. The latest report also cut its prediction of supplies from non-OPEC countries for 3q05 and 4q05 by 194k b/d and 191k b/d respectively. OPEC raised the call on demand for its oil in 4q05 by 276k b/d, reports Reuters.
17/11/2005
Record UK Coal Imports in September
Coal imports into the UK in September set a monthly record, according to the latest trade data. Total coal imports reached 4.03 Mt, up 16% year-on-year. The rise was due to a surge in steam coal imports, which hit 3.55 Mt compared with 2.74 Mt in September last year and 3.02 Mt in August 2005. This brings the year-to-date total for all coal imports into the UK to 31.65 Mt, up 17% YOY.
16/11/2005
China’s Crude Imports Up 21% In Oct
China’s crude imports climbed 21% year-on-year to 2.7m b/d in Oct, and for the first 10 months of the year have averaged 2.6m b/d, a 6.3% rise on a year ago, according to latest customs figures. Imports are expected to increase 5.9% in 2005 to 2.64m b/d, compared with 34.8% in ’04, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, reports China View. The deputy director of the Commerce Ministry’s foreign trade division stated that the lower import growth rate in ’05 compared to growth of 34.5% in ’04 was due to high oil prices, decreases in fixed-asset investment, an easing of local power shortages and the development of alternative fuels, reports China
View. China’s State Information Centre is forecasting imports to rise to 7.3m b/d by 2020, with overseas reserves serving 70% of the nations
consumption, compared with 60% in 2010 having only imported 45.7% of its oil consumption in ’04. China consumed approximately 6.4m b/d of crude oil in ’04, importing 2.5m b/d, taking 8% of world consumption.
View. China’s State Information Centre is forecasting imports to rise to 7.3m b/d by 2020, with overseas reserves serving 70% of the nations
consumption, compared with 60% in 2010 having only imported 45.7% of its oil consumption in ’04. China consumed approximately 6.4m b/d of crude oil in ’04, importing 2.5m b/d, taking 8% of world consumption.
15/11/2005
USDA Soya Trade Forecast
The US Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast of year-on-year increases for 2005/6 soya imports for the world's largest importers, China and the EU. China's imports are predicted to rise 6.6% from 2004/05 to 27.6 Mt, whilst the EU projection shows a 1% increase to 38.8 Mt. Among the leading soya exporters, Brazil is predicted to export 38.5 Mt in 2005/06 (up 9.4% year-on-year), Argentina's exports are forecast to reach 31.2 Mt (up 4%), whilst US exports are thought to fall 3.6% to 31.2 Mt.
15/11/2005
Congestion at Australia's Coal Ports Returns to September Level
SSY's Australian Coal Port Congestion Index rebounded this week from a 35-month low of 2.8 days to 6.9 days. This compares with an average of 6.9 days in September and 7.4 days in October. Much of the week-on-week rise in vessel waiting times has been due to reports of increased delays at Gladstone and Newcastle.
14/11/2005
India’s Product Exports Rise Jan-Aug
India’s product exports climbed 18% year-on-year to 344k b/d in the first eight months of ’05, despite a 2.5% rise in domestic demand over the same period to 2.35m b/d, reports Petroleum Argus. India is exporting more products as refiners attempt to cash in on high international margins which is contributing to a rising supply overhang in Asia-Pacific. Even as strong margins in Asia-Pacific begin to decline, partly due to India’s increased exports, they still remain above Indian margins, according to Argus. Exports have been rising sharply over the past few months following the addition of new desulphurisation capacity by some state-owned refiners.
14/11/2005
FSU Product Exports Rise In Oct
FSU total product exports rose by 27.1% year-on-year in Oct to 2.3m b/d, mostly due to a 266.7% jump in gasoline exports, the latest data from Petroleum Argus shows. Gasoil exports were up 20.6% year-on-year to 772k b/d with fuel oil exports also contributing to the rise with a 5.7% increase over the last year. Crude throughput at Russian refineries reached 4.1m b/d in the first nine months of ’05, a climb of 6% against the same period last year. Gasoline production increased by 6.1% and gasoil output rose by 8.7%, leading to a 5.7% hike in fuel oil production. Refiners have boosted runs in Russia this year to satisfy the growing demand in Europe for gasoline and distillates, producing more fuel oil in the process. Favourable Russian export taxes have encouraged exports to Europe resulting in several FSU ports
switching from crude to product loadings, according to the latest report from Argus.
switching from crude to product loadings, according to the latest report from Argus.
11/11/2005
The IEA Cuts Its Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast
The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2005 by 70k b/d to show a 1.5% rise to 83.3m b/d as unusually warm weather, higher product prices and US hurricane related disruptions dampened consumption. However, Chinese apparent demand, which has been softer in recent months, grew by around 8.6%
year-on-year in Sept as the government pressured state owned refiners to limit product exports, the IEA said in its Nov monthly report. World oil production increased by 865k b/d in Oct to 84.4m b/d as US production affected by hurricanes came back online. OPEC crude supply averaged 29.6m b/d in Oct but the IEA noted that there had been little sign that an offer by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make available spare capacity of 2m b/d had been taken up. Looking towards 2006 the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 2% to 85m b/d, and anticipates a recovery in Chinese apparent demand to around 6.5% in 2006.
year-on-year in Sept as the government pressured state owned refiners to limit product exports, the IEA said in its Nov monthly report. World oil production increased by 865k b/d in Oct to 84.4m b/d as US production affected by hurricanes came back online. OPEC crude supply averaged 29.6m b/d in Oct but the IEA noted that there had been little sign that an offer by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to make available spare capacity of 2m b/d had been taken up. Looking towards 2006 the IEA expects global oil demand to grow by 2% to 85m b/d, and anticipates a recovery in Chinese apparent demand to around 6.5% in 2006.
10/11/2005
Marked increase in Indian steam coal imports
India imported 3.7 Mt of coal in October, according to shipping sources quoted by McCloskey. Total coal imports for the year-to-date have now reached 33.2 Mt, compared with 29.8 Mt in 2004. October steam coal imports reached 2.1 Mt, bringing the year-to-date total to 15.6 Mt, the second highest monthly total this year. This represents a marked increase from the 14.5 Mt imported during 2004.
10/11/2005
US Crude And Gasoline Stocks Up
US crude stocks rose by a massive 4.5m bbls last week, more than double market predictions, to 323.6m bbls, according to the latest data from the US Department of Energy. This resulted in an 11%
increase year-on-year, with imports climbing 524k b/d to 10.6m b/d. Gasoline stocks also jumped by 4.2m bbls to 201.1m bbls, a 2.1% rise on the previous week, despite imports falling 7.3% to 1.1m b/d and demand rising by 201k b/d to 9.3m b/d. Distillate stocks inched another 0.1m bbls lower to 120.8m bbls regardless of a 173k b/d rise
in imports to 496k b/d last week - up 116% year-on-year- as demand rose 139k b/d. Refinery utilisation continued to increase to 84%, 1.5%
above last weeks level.
increase year-on-year, with imports climbing 524k b/d to 10.6m b/d. Gasoline stocks also jumped by 4.2m bbls to 201.1m bbls, a 2.1% rise on the previous week, despite imports falling 7.3% to 1.1m b/d and demand rising by 201k b/d to 9.3m b/d. Distillate stocks inched another 0.1m bbls lower to 120.8m bbls regardless of a 173k b/d rise
in imports to 496k b/d last week - up 116% year-on-year- as demand rose 139k b/d. Refinery utilisation continued to increase to 84%, 1.5%
above last weeks level.
09/11/2005
Poland raises coal exports
Poland's coal exporter Weglokoks, has announced that it will export an extra 1 Mt of type 35 coking coal this year, according to McCloskey. It predicts that next year, seaborne exports of coking coal will rise from 1 Mt to 2 Mt, as a result of flat domestic demand and an anticipated fall in railed exports. In comparison, this year, Poland is set to export 14.5 Mt of steam coal (including to overland destinations).
09/11/2005
Increase in Pacific Coal Shipments to China
In the first eight months of the year, China imported 18.5 Mt of coal, representing a year-on-year rise of 5.8 Mt. According to the Tex Report, much of this increase was due to increased imports from Vietnam (+2.7 Mt to 6.9 Mt), Australia (+0.4 Mt to 4.2 Mt), Indonesia (+0.7 Mt to 1.6 Mt). The annualised import total of 27.7 Mt compares with 10.8 Mt in 2003 and 18.6 Mt in 2004.
08/11/2005
Global Oil Demand Rises In Oct
Global oil demand in Oct was 1.4%, or 1.2m b/d, higher year-on-year totalling 83.5m b/d, reports Energy Intelligence Briefing. The majority of the growth came from industrialising nations, while
consumption in the member states of the OECD increased by 150k b/d. Oil output is still higher than demand, but the gap is narrowing with supply 1.26m b/d ahead at 84.7m b/d. Chinese demand in Oct was 4.2% higher than last year and could well be revised up, said EIB. It added Chinese buying is expected to increase rapidly with the Chinese New
Year approaching in early 2006.
consumption in the member states of the OECD increased by 150k b/d. Oil output is still higher than demand, but the gap is narrowing with supply 1.26m b/d ahead at 84.7m b/d. Chinese demand in Oct was 4.2% higher than last year and could well be revised up, said EIB. It added Chinese buying is expected to increase rapidly with the Chinese New
Year approaching in early 2006.
08/11/2005
Japan’s Crude Imports Fall In September
Japan’s crude imports fell 3% to an average of 4.2m b/d in Sept, but leading suppliers UAE and Saudi Arabia both increased their market share into Japan, reports Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. The UAE supplied an average of 1.25m b/d, 8.3% higher year-on-year, just above Saudi Arabia’s total of 1.21m b/d which was 15% higher. Imports from Iran were down 24.1% on year ago levels at 449k b/d. Imports of Russian crude from Sakhalin almost tripled to 74k b/d. In the first nine months of the year Japan’s crude imports ran at an average of 4.2m b/d, 0.7% above year ago levels.
07/11/2005
Increased Newcastle Exports for October
Coal shipments from Newcastle have increased to 7.71 Mt in October, according to McCloskey, an increase of 19.7% from the same month last year. Newcastle port operator, Port Waratah Coal Services, reports that Newcastle's exports in the year to date reached 67.54Mt, an increase of 3.6% from the corresponding period last year. According to Bloomberg a significant investment in infrastructure within the next two years is likely to increase Newcastle's export capacity by 17%.
07/11/2005
Indian Government Announces Steel Output Plan
India's steel industry is set to raise its output capacity from the current level of 38 Mtpa to 100 Mtpa by 2020, according to a report quoted by Deutsche Bank. The new National Steel Policy has a target annual production growth of 7.3% and will encompass increased investment in rail, road and port infrastructure. India has the world's third-largest iron ore reserves.
04/11/2005
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