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Latest News
Strong Russian Coal Exports in November
Coal exports from Russia in November reached 5.6 Mt, representing a year-on-year rise of 0.6 Mt, McCloskey reports. Increased shipments from ports in the Baltic Sea and Murmansk contributed much of the YOY rise, with Murmansk shipments reaching 1 Mt during the month as opposed to 0.6 Mt in November 2004. In the first eleven months of 2005 Russian coal exports totalled 59.1 Mt (+4.0 Mt YOY). Of that total, shipments from Murmansk and the Baltic ports comprised 34.1 Mt (+5.4 Mt YOY).
23/12/2005
Outlook for China's Economy
The chief economist of China's National Bureau of Statistics, Yao Jingyuan, has forecast China's GDP growth in the 2006 calendar year at 8-9% compared with just below 9.5% for this year, China Daily reports. Mr Yao commented that China's status as a developing economy meant that investment would probably remain the country's main economic engine. It would therefore be unlikely that fixed asset investment growth would fall below 20% from this year's rate of 25-26%. Mr Yao added that China's government would also concentrate efforts on raising domestic consumption in the coming year.
22/12/2005
SSY/Global Coal Screen Update - 3 Years Since Launch
SSY/GlobalCoal Screen has seen volumes soar recently, with the number of traded lots so far this month rapidly approaching 1,000 (both OTC- and LCH-cleared).
The screen had 56 traders logged in last month.
The volume of LCH trades is increasing month on month in the market as a whole, and we are proud to say that SSY has executed more LCH-cleared trades than any other broker so far.
The synergy of the clearer LCH.Clearnet entering the freight market and the link up to the established SSY/Globalcoal trading screen has been a major development for both liquidity and transparency in our market. We thank our clients for their continued support and help in the ongoing development of this innovative platform.
The screen had 56 traders logged in last month.
The volume of LCH trades is increasing month on month in the market as a whole, and we are proud to say that SSY has executed more LCH-cleared trades than any other broker so far.
The synergy of the clearer LCH.Clearnet entering the freight market and the link up to the established SSY/Globalcoal trading screen has been a major development for both liquidity and transparency in our market. We thank our clients for their continued support and help in the ongoing development of this innovative platform.
21/12/2005
Contrasting Pictures from China’s Trade Data
The latest China’s Customs Statistics show contrasting data for Chinese trade in November. The headline figure is the record iron ore import number of 27.3 Mt, which brings the year-to-date import total to 248.5 Mt - up 33% YOY.
However, Chinese coal export data is weak, with November exports of 4.4 Mt. As a result, the YTD total stands at 65.2 Mt - compared with 79.6 Mt in the same period last year. In further contrast to the record iron ore imports, apparent steel consumption in the country (steel production plus the net steel trade) during November is the lowest since July.
However, Chinese coal export data is weak, with November exports of 4.4 Mt. As a result, the YTD total stands at 65.2 Mt - compared with 79.6 Mt in the same period last year. In further contrast to the record iron ore imports, apparent steel consumption in the country (steel production plus the net steel trade) during November is the lowest since July.
20/12/2005
China Produces 30.5 Mt of Steel in November
China produced 30.5 Mt of crude steel in November (+17% year-on-year), according to the latest data from the International Iron & Steel Institute. This represents the third highest monthly output total in China. Production in India also grew YOY, up 19% YOY to 3.4 Mt. Elsewhere, steel production in November was down on last year. In the US, November output totalled 7.7 Mt (-6% YOY), in Japan production fell to 9.1 Mt (-3%), while a YOY decline was also seen in the EU-25 (15.9 Mt, -4%). World output in November was 94.1 Mt (+4%).
19/12/2005
European Refinery Throughputs At 11-month High In Nov
Refinery throughputs in the EU 16 countries were at an 11-month high of 12.72m b/d in Nov, with European refiners running at 97% of capacity, reports Petroleum Argus. Crude runs have only exceeded 12.7m b/d six times since Euroilstock records began in 1990. European refineries have now been operating at over 95% of capacity for 4 successive months, the longest stretch of such high utilisation in 5 years. Refiners postponed turnaround plans for this quarter due to the US hurricanes, which could result in unplanned shutdowns during the winter as refineries start to feel the strain, reports Argus. European throughputs fell to 12m b/d in Oct and Nov last year due to maintenance closures. High runs have cut European crude stocks by 20m bbl since peaking at a 6 year high of 490m bbl at the end of July, with 15m bbl of this occurring in the last month, reports Argus.
19/12/2005
Highest Business Confidence in Germany for 5 Years
Business confidence in Germany, as measured by the Ifo "business climate" index, has jumped to its highest level since August 2000, the Financial Times reports. The index rose to 99.6 from 97.8 in November as a result of strong export growth and higher levels of domestic investment. At the end of last month, the OECD noted that forward looking indicators in Europe's largest economy suggested that economic activity is strengthening.
16/12/2005
OPEC Raise Forecasts For Oil Demand
OPEC raised projected demand for its crude in ’06 to 28.7m b/d, an increase of 134k b/d from the previous forecast, reports Reuters. Demand for OPEC crude in 2005 was forecast at 28.8m b/d, 0.6m b/d up from 2004. The projections are above the cartel’s current output ceiling of 28m b/d for the 10 members with quotas. Including non-quota
Iraq, OPEC 2005 output has averaged 29.9m b/d. World oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.6m b/d, or 1.9%, to 84.9m b/d in ’06. For the remainder of ’05, OPEC has forecast world oil demand to rise by 1.2m b/d, or 1.5% to 83.3m b/d. The bulk of the increase came from developing countries, led by China, which have experienced strong economic growth, and oil producers, which have benefited from high oil prices. The pace of demand in ’05 is expected to outstrip growth in
non-OPEC supplies, hence the higher call on OPEC crude. Non-OPEC supply in 2006 was expected to average 51.6m b/d, an increase of 1.4m b/d from ’05, reports Reuters.
Iraq, OPEC 2005 output has averaged 29.9m b/d. World oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.6m b/d, or 1.9%, to 84.9m b/d in ’06. For the remainder of ’05, OPEC has forecast world oil demand to rise by 1.2m b/d, or 1.5% to 83.3m b/d. The bulk of the increase came from developing countries, led by China, which have experienced strong economic growth, and oil producers, which have benefited from high oil prices. The pace of demand in ’05 is expected to outstrip growth in
non-OPEC supplies, hence the higher call on OPEC crude. Non-OPEC supply in 2006 was expected to average 51.6m b/d, an increase of 1.4m b/d from ’05, reports Reuters.
16/12/2005
US Coking Coal Mine Reopens
A press release from Consol announces that after a closure of three months, the Buchanan coking coal mine in the US has now reopened. The mine, which had an output of 4.4 Mt of low-volatility coking coal last year, lost about 1.1 Mt of production capacity during the three-month outage, according to McCloskey. Buchanan was shut in September as a result of damage to the skip hoist, but also was out of operation for four months earlier this year when fire damage forced the owners to declare force majeure.
15/12/2005
China’s Fuel Imports Expected To Drop In 2005
China’s fuel imports, which supply more than half the countries domestic oil needs, are expected to fall 14% this year compared to an increase of 18% last year, reports China Daily. This is due to the
government’s use of macro-controls to cool down the over-heated economy as well as surging oil prices reducing the domestic demand for oil. China is expected to buy some 0.49m b/d of fuel oil from foreign sellers this year, down from last year’s 0.57m b/d, said Gong Jinshuang, an analyst with the China National Petroleum Corp. China’s domestic consumption of fuel oil is expected to reach 0.95m b/d this year against last year’s 1m b/d.
government’s use of macro-controls to cool down the over-heated economy as well as surging oil prices reducing the domestic demand for oil. China is expected to buy some 0.49m b/d of fuel oil from foreign sellers this year, down from last year’s 0.57m b/d, said Gong Jinshuang, an analyst with the China National Petroleum Corp. China’s domestic consumption of fuel oil is expected to reach 0.95m b/d this year against last year’s 1m b/d.
15/12/2005
US Gasoline And Crude Stocks Rise, Distillate Falls
US gasoline imports jumped up another 32.3% last week to 1.3m b/d, having risen 115% over the last two weeks, bringing levels 55.8% higher year-on-year, the latest data from the US Department of Energy shows. This contributed to the 1.8m bbl rise in gasoline stocks that brought levels to 204.4m bbl, the highest since the last week of July, having been unaffected by the 1.1% year-on-year rise in demand. Distillate inventories inched 0.1m bbl lower to 130.5m bbl despite a 6% rise in imports. Distillate import levels now average 425k b/d, 49.6% higher than the same week last year. Crude stocks went against market expectations by continuing to grow by another 0.9m bbl to 321.2m bbl taking levels 9.3% higher year-on-year, despite imports falling 150k b/d to 10.4m b/d. Refinery utilisation fell 1% to 89.6%.
14/12/2005
Chinese Coal Export Licences Announced
China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued coal licences for 80 Mt for 2006, according to Platts, the same level as 2005. Trade data from January to October show that Chinese coal exports reached an annualised total of 72.9 Mt, well below the 86.6 Mt shipped in 2004. Conversely, China's coal imports are set to rise this year, having reached an annualised total for the year-to-date of 24.8 Mt, a significant year-on-year increase from the 18.6 Mt imported in 2004.
14/12/2005
US Gasoline And Crude Stocks Rise, Distillate Falls
US gasoline imports jumped up another 32.3% last week to 1.3m b/d, having risen 115% over the last two weeks, bringing levels 55.8% higher year-on-year, the latest data from the US Department of Energy shows. This contributed to the 1.8m bbl rise in gasoline stocks that brought levels to 204.4m bbl, the highest since the last week of July, having been unaffected by the 1.1% year-on-year rise in demand. Distillate inventories inched 0.1m bbl lower to 130.5m bbl despite a 6% rise in imports. Distillate import levels now average 425k b/d, 49.6% higher than the same week last year. Crude stocks went against market expectations by continuing to grow by another 0.9m bbl to 321.2m bbl taking levels 9.3% higher year-on-year, despite imports falling 150k b/d to 10.4m b/d. Refinery utilisation fell 1% to 89.6%.
14/12/2005
IEA Revises Global Oil Demand Forecast
World oil demand has been revised down by 20k b/d for 2005 to 1.18mb/d bringing the annual forecast for demand growth to 1.4%, reports the
International Energy Agency in its latest report. Demand in 2006 is projected to recover to 1.79mb/d with annual growth climbing to 2.2%,
compared with 2% forecast last month. The IEA made some longer-term forecasts projecting demand to grow at an average of 1.8-2mb/d through 2010, which may test the global supply chain in ’07 and ’08 due to them being lean years for new oilfields coming online. On the supply side, OPEC is set to boost its spare capacity to 3.1mb/d by end ’06. Non-OPEC supply growth in ’06 is forecast to rise to 1.4mb/d from just 110kb/d this year and is expected to come mostly from ex-Soviet countries, Brazil, Angola and Canadian oil sands. This year has seen the lowest non-OPEC growth for 6 years amid rapid decline in the mature North Sea region and almost stagnant output from Russia, reports Reuters. Even if non-OPEC suppliers reach this target, demand for OPEC crude was set to rise to 28.5mb/d in ’06 from 28.4mb/d in
’05, the IEA said.
International Energy Agency in its latest report. Demand in 2006 is projected to recover to 1.79mb/d with annual growth climbing to 2.2%,
compared with 2% forecast last month. The IEA made some longer-term forecasts projecting demand to grow at an average of 1.8-2mb/d through 2010, which may test the global supply chain in ’07 and ’08 due to them being lean years for new oilfields coming online. On the supply side, OPEC is set to boost its spare capacity to 3.1mb/d by end ’06. Non-OPEC supply growth in ’06 is forecast to rise to 1.4mb/d from just 110kb/d this year and is expected to come mostly from ex-Soviet countries, Brazil, Angola and Canadian oil sands. This year has seen the lowest non-OPEC growth for 6 years amid rapid decline in the mature North Sea region and almost stagnant output from Russia, reports Reuters. Even if non-OPEC suppliers reach this target, demand for OPEC crude was set to rise to 28.5mb/d in ’06 from 28.4mb/d in
’05, the IEA said.
13/12/2005
Newcastle Throughput Increases
Throughput from Newcastle recovered from a poor month in November, according to McCloskey, with coal shipments rising above official capacity levels in the last week. The port shipped 1.76 Mt this last week, up from 1.53 Mt the week before. As a result of the increased efficiency of the port, vessel queues have fallen to 19, contrasting with the 25 the week before and estimated average waiting times have fallen from 10.3 days last week to 6.9 days this week.
13/12/2005
Stronger Soya Export Sales from the US
The US recorded stronger soya export sales last week that reached 1.072 Mt. This exceeded trade expectations significantly, according to the US Department of Agriculture, with China accounting for over 500,000 Mt of these sales. Cumulative sales of soyabeans represented 42% of the USDA forecast, which compares to the 63% - the average over the past five years for this time of year. Sales of soya meal reached 272,000 tonnes, exceeding expectations which were 75,000 -- 125,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, according to the American Soybean Association, Brazilian soya exports are expected to slow, at least until the end of January. This is due to a weaker US dollar, which is set to squeeze the margins of Brazilian soyabean farmers.
12/12/2005
Australian Coal Exports Set for Another Record Year
Australian coal export shipments are on course for another record year despite a decrease in November's figures, McCloskey reports. The fall in November's shipments is a result of a poor month at Newcastle, with total exports from Australia falling by 7.4% year-on-year to 17.34 Mt. Year-to-date shipments rose to 215 Mt, (up 2.9% year-on-year) almost certain to exceed last years total of 225 Mt.
Meanwhile, exports from Richards Bay Coal Terminal performed well in November, with exports reaching 6.1 Mt. This is close to the 6.3 Mt exported in October - was the highest level seen this year. Rail transportation to the port operated smoothly in November, at an annualised rate in excess of 70 Mt for most of the month.
Meanwhile, exports from Richards Bay Coal Terminal performed well in November, with exports reaching 6.1 Mt. This is close to the 6.3 Mt exported in October - was the highest level seen this year. Rail transportation to the port operated smoothly in November, at an annualised rate in excess of 70 Mt for most of the month.
10/12/2005
Russian Product Exports Fall In Nov
FSU Nov product exports were down 3.9% month-on-month to 2.3m b/d due to a fall in gasoil and gasoline shipments, reports Argus FSU Energy. Gasoline exports declined 22% against Oct levels as arbitrage opportunities to the US were limited for much of Nov. Gasoil exports dropped 13% month-on-month as a steep contango in the market encouraged traders to store volumes rather than export them. A rise in export duty at the end of Oct, combined with low demand in northwest Europe and imports from Asia-Pacific also contributed to the fall. Fuel oil exports however, rose 13% from Oct due to thin domestic demand despite lower temperatures as heating firms have already exceeded their allocated budgets, reports Argus.
09/12/2005
Richards Bay Exports Perform Well in November
Richards Bay Coal Terminal has had another big month in November, according to McCloskey, with exports reaching 6.1 Mt. This is close to the 6.3 Mt exported in October which was the highest level seen this year, but could have been higher had it not been for buyers requesting delays into December for some cargoes. The port's rail transportation network in November was working smoothly, with an annualised rate of over 70 Mt for most of the month.
09/12/2005
Colombian Coal Exports Hit By Heavy Rain
Colombian coal export forecasts for 2005 have been cut to 54 Mt, according to McCloskey, as a result of the worst rains in thirty years. Market expectations for Colombian coal exports in 2005 were predicted to be around 60-63 Mt at the beginning of the year, although two weeks ago, when the rains started, this was cut to 55Mt. Heavy rain has seriously affected both road and rail transportation in addition to causing mining difficulties and port loading problems earlier on in the year.
08/12/2005
US Oil Stocks And Imports Rise
US gasoline imports jumped back up by 62.5% last week to 949k b/d but levels remained 13.2% lower than the same time last year, the latest data from the US Department of Energy shows. This contributed to the 2.7m bbl rise in gasoline stocks that brought levels to 202.6m bbl, the highest since the first week of Aug. Crude stocks went against
market expectations by increasing 2.7m bbl to 320.3m bbl taking levels 9% higher year-on-year. This was partly due to an 886k b/d, or 9.1%, rise in imports to 10.6m b/d. Distillate inventories also rose by another 2.7m bbl to 130.6m bbl having been affected by a 5.8% climb in imports, eliminating any effects from the 91k b/d rise in demand. Distillate import levels are now 401k b/d, 53.6% higher than the same time last year while stocks are only 9.5% higher year-on-year. Refinery utilisation was up to 90.6%, an improvement of 1.3% on the previous week.
market expectations by increasing 2.7m bbl to 320.3m bbl taking levels 9% higher year-on-year. This was partly due to an 886k b/d, or 9.1%, rise in imports to 10.6m b/d. Distillate inventories also rose by another 2.7m bbl to 130.6m bbl having been affected by a 5.8% climb in imports, eliminating any effects from the 91k b/d rise in demand. Distillate import levels are now 401k b/d, 53.6% higher than the same time last year while stocks are only 9.5% higher year-on-year. Refinery utilisation was up to 90.6%, an improvement of 1.3% on the previous week.
07/12/2005
Australian Coal Exports Set For Another Record Year
Australian coal export shipments are on course for another record year despite a decrease in November's figures, McCloskey reports. The fall in November 's shipments is a result of a poor month at Newcastle, with total exports from Australia falling by 7.4% year-on-year to 17.34 Mt. Year-to-date shipments rose to 215 Mt, a YOY increase of 2.9%, which are almost certain to exceed last years total of 225 Mt comfortably.
07/12/2005
Global Oil Demand Growth Slows Further
Global oil demand growth is continuing to contract. Consumption has been slowing by 0.6% in established economies in Sept, Oct and Nov compared to the previous year, yet remained above 2% in industrialising countries, reports Energy Intelligence Briefing. Year-on-year growth in Nov is looking to be 0.4% partly due to an
unseasonably warm winter in the Northern hemisphere delaying demand for heating oil and high oil prices causing consumers to seek alternatives. Global oil demand in Nov totalled 83.8m b/d, up 370k b/d year-on-year, and 950k b/d higher than Oct ’05. The growth followed
year-on-year increases in Oct and Sept of 0.79% and 0.65% respectively. Of the key OECD nations, only the UK, South Korea and Australia showed any growth in oil demand, reports EIB.
unseasonably warm winter in the Northern hemisphere delaying demand for heating oil and high oil prices causing consumers to seek alternatives. Global oil demand in Nov totalled 83.8m b/d, up 370k b/d year-on-year, and 950k b/d higher than Oct ’05. The growth followed
year-on-year increases in Oct and Sept of 0.79% and 0.65% respectively. Of the key OECD nations, only the UK, South Korea and Australia showed any growth in oil demand, reports EIB.
06/12/2005
Senior Chinese Steel Industry Official Dismisses Reports of Oversupply
In contrast to some of the recent negative statements from government officials, the China Iron & Steel Association predicts PRC steel production to rise by 40 Mt next year to 385 Mt. A senior official from CISA has gone so far as to say that the recent prediction from the State Council Research and Development Centre of an oversupply of steel in China next year of 116 Mt was "baseless". If CISA are proved correct in their forecast, this would imply another significant increase in iron ore imports next year.
06/12/2005
China's car exports exceed imports
China has exported more cars than it has imported for the first time in the year to date, according to Chinese Ministry of Commerce figures quoted by Xinhua. In the year to October, China's exports increased by 134% year-on-year, to 135,000 vehicles, whilst imports fell 12% to 128,000. Earlier this year, the Chinese Auto Association confirmed that in the first nine months of the year China produced 4.2 million car units and sold 4.1 million, an increase of 8.2% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively. This illustrates the size of China's domestic car industry, with the country becoming the third largest car market in the world in 2004.
05/12/2005
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