China and Eurozone Flash PMI’s rise modestly
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers’ Index (PMI) for October rose to a three-month high of 50.4, up from 50.2 in September. Meanwhile, Markit’s Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for October firmed to a two-month high of 50.7, up from 50.3 in September.
Japan’s crude imports fall y-o-y in September
Japan’s customs cleared imports of crude oil in September declined by 3.7% y-o-y to 3.39M b/d, according to preliminary data from the country’s Ministry of Finance.
China’s crude imports from the Middle East rise in September
China’s imports of crude oil from the Middle East in September increased by 481K b/d m-o-m and 288K b/d y-o-y to average 3.78M b/d, the highest volume since April, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs. The m-o-m rise was driven by higher imports from Iran, Kuwait and particularly Saudi Arabia, whose exports to China reached their highest since January at 1.16M b/d. However volumes from Saudi Arabia were down slightly from the previous year with higher imports from Oman, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran, making up the difference. Imports from West Africa were up 184K b/d m-o-m but down 132K b/d y-o-y, with Angolan crude continuing to drive volumes here. A surge in imports of Colombian crude to a multi-year high of 394K b/d, lifted imports from the Caribbean by 181K b/d m-o-m and 101K b/d y-o-y to a four-month high of 559K b/d. Notably, China imported crude from Libya for the first time since October last year, at 34K b/d.
China’s crude runs hit record high
China’s crude oil refinery inputs in September increased by 480K b/d m-o-m and 824K b/d y-o-y to a record high of 10.27M b/d, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Meanwhile, China’s GDP grew by 7.3% y-o-y in 3Q14, down from 7.5% in the previous quarter and the slowest growth rate since March 2009, data from the NBS shows.
Japanese crude steel production at 3-month low
According to latest update from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, the country’s crude steel production in September edged lower by 1.1% from August and 0.5% from the year-ago level to a 3-month low of 9.2 Mt. Total output in the January to September of this year now totals 83.1 Mt, up by 0.6 Mt from the corresponding level in 2013.
Angola’s crude exports set to fall in December
Angola’s exports of crude oil in December are scheduled to fall by 50K b/d m-o-m to 1.61M b/d, Argus reports. The country’s crude exports are now set to average 1.62M b/d in 2014, down from 1.7M b/d in 2013, due to steep production declines at older reservoirs outweighing production increases from new fields.
Global oil product inventories rise
Global oil product inventories in the first nine months of 2014 have risen by 175M bbls, Energy Intelligence reports. Global crude runs in the period were up 1.25M b/d y-o-y and this combined with stalling oil demand in Europe, China and India and the subsequent build in oil product stocks could limit refinery inputs in 4Q14.
Brazilian Steel Exports
Steel exports from Brazil rose to their highest level since January 2006 in September at 1.1 Mt, up 84% year-on-year, according to official data. Brazil’s steel exports in the first 9 months of 2014 were up 14% year-on-year at 6.8 Mt.
Indonesian Coal Exports
Exports of coal from Indonesia fell to their lowest level in almost 2 years in August at 30.7 Mt, down 0.5 Mt year-on-year, according to data from Bank Indonesia. Total exports in the period January-August were down 8.0 Mt on the same period in 2013, at 273.4 Mt.
South Korea’s crude imports from Iran decline y-o-y
South Korea’s imports of Iranian crude oil in September fell 2.4% y-o-y to 136K b/d, despite overall crude imports rising 5.5% y-o-y to 2.57M b/d, according to customs data, Reuters reports. South Korea has imported an average of 129K b/d of crude from Iran so far this year, down 7% from the same period last year.
China Daily Crude Steel Output
Daily crude steel production at China Iron and Steel Association member mills rose to its highest level since mid-August, of 1.804 Mt in the first 10 days of October, according to data from the industry body reported by Reuters. This compares with 1.786 Mt in the final 10 days of September.
Colombian Coal Exports
Steam coal exports from Colombia rose to an all-time high of 7.9 Mt in September, up 24% year-on-year, according to IHS McCloskey. Shipments to Europe were up 25% on September 2013, at 5.6 Mt. Exports to the Americas were up 21% year-on-year, at 2.3 Mt, primarily driven by increased cargoes to the US (+41% to 0.6 Mt) and Brazil (+38% to 0.4 Mt). Combined exports for the 3q14 totalled 22.2 Mt, also an all-time high, and up 24% on the 3q13. The data shows no shipments to Asia this year.
India’s crude imports from Iran fall in September
India’s crude oil imports from Iran in September fell for the first time since June, dropping 11.7% m-o-m and 18.5% y-o-y to 241K b/d, Reuters reports. However over the first nine months of the year imports were up 38% y-o-y at an average of 268K b/d, partly due to a large surge in 1Q14 imports following the easing of western sanctions on Iran. The rise comes despite India’s overall crude imports between January and September declining 2.8% from the previous year.
Global Steel Prices Fall
The US domestic price for hot rolled band (HRB) fell by $15/t in the two weeks to 15 October, to $721/t, its lowest level for 6 months, according to the latest Steelbenchmarker from World Steel Dynamics. The Western European and Chinese HRB prices declined by $6/t and $3/t over the same period, to $552/t and $415/t, respectively, taking the Chinese price to its lowest point for 5 years.
IEA cuts oil demand growths forecast
The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest monthly oil market report has cut its forecast for 2014 global oil consumption growth by 200K b/d to 0.7M b/d. The projection for 2015 growth was subject to an even steeper downward revision of300K b/d to 1.1M b/d. The revisions follow the IMF trimming its forecasts for global economic growth in their October World Economic Outlook. Meanwhile, global oil supply in September rose by almost 910K b/d to 93.8M b/d, an increase of almost 2.8M b/d y-o-y.
European Industrial Production
Industrial production fell by 1.9% year-on-year in the Eurozone in August and by 0.8% in the EU-28, according to data from Eurostat. This represents a sharp reversal from July when industrial production in the euro area and EU-28 rose by 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
Chinese Soya Imports
Chinese soyabean imports fell to a 6-month low of 5.0 Mt in September, however, they were still up 7% year-on-year, according to preliminary customs data. Soyabean imports in the period January-September totalled 52.7 Mt, up 15% on the same period in 2013.
Queensland Coal Exports
Coal exports from the Australian state of Queensland rose to a record high of 158.5 Mt in January-September, up 12% on the same period in 2013, according to industry data reported by Reuters.
China’s crude imports in September rise to second highest on record
China’s imports of crude oil in September increased by 783K b/d m-o-m and 465K b/d y-o-y to 6.74M b/d, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs. The rise comes in spite of considerable refinery maintenance and subdued oil demand in the country, which may imply some strategic stockpiling. Oil product exports fell 21.2% m-o-m to 2.15MT, while oil product imports fell 2.4% to 2.47MT, resulting in a net import total of 320KT, the largest since April.
Chinese Trade Data
Preliminary customs data put China’s iron ore imports in September at 84.7 Mt, the second highest month on record. The September total compared with 74.9 Mt in August and 74.6 Mt in September 2013. Combined iron ore imports for January-September totalled 699.5 Mt, up a colossal 98.2 Mt year-on-year.
China’s steel exports rose to an all-time high of 8.5 Mt in September, up 3.6 Mt year-on-year. Steel exports for January-September are up a massive 18.5 Mt on the same period in 2013 at 65.4 Mt. In contrast, coal imports (incl. lignite) fell 4.6 Mt year-on-year to 21.2 Mt, although, they were up on August’s 23-month low of 18.9 Mt. Combined coal imports for the first nine months of 2014 totalled 223.2 Mt, down 15.7 Mt year-on-year.
Oil prices fall as OPEC producers raise production
The price for Brent crude oil dropped to near $88/bbl on Friday to its lowest since December 2010, while WTI fell below $84/bbl to its lowest since 2012, Reuters reports. The decline follows OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report which included news of a 402K b/d m-o-m rise in member’s production in September, driven by growing output from Libya and Iraq.
Indian Iron Ore
Iron ore throughput at the major ports of India fell to its lowest level since November 2012 in September, plunging 58% year-on-year to 1.0 Mt, according to data from the Indian Ports Association. Combined throughput for April-September totalled 9.1 Mt, down 23% on the same period in 2013.
US Grain Exports
Weekly exports of grain from the US surged to their highest level since the end of February last week at 2.62 Mt, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture. Exports of corn (0.98 Mt), wheat (0.67 Mt) and soyabeans (0.97 Mt) all rose week-on-week, with soyabean exports hitting a 29-week high.
China Daily Crude Steel Output
Daily crude steel output at China Iron and Steel Association member mills was 1.786 Mt in the last 10 days of September, according to data from the industry body reported by SteelFirst. This was a slight drop from the preceding 10 days when daily output was 1.787 Mt.
Japan’s gasoline exports in August hit record high for the month
Japan’s exports of gasoline in August reached a record high for the month of 35K b/d, according to data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The volume is up from an average of only 6K b/d in August 2013 and comes on the back of a weakened Yen and low domestic demand, during what is typically the country’s peak driving season.