Yemen resumes oil flow after pipeline repair
Yemen has repaired and begun pumping crude oil through the 70-110K b/d Maarib pipeline after tribesmen blew up the pipeline on July 12th, Reuters reports. The pipeline carries Marib light crude from the Safer oilfields to the Ras Isa oil terminal on the Red Sea.
IMF World Economic Outlook
In its latest World Economic Outlook the IMF has cut its global growth forecast for 2014 by 0.3 percentage points to 3.4% but has stated it expects the global recovery to continue, albeit at an uneven pace. The forecast for 2015 is unchanged at 4.0%. The 2014 growth forecast for advanced economies has been cut by 0.4 percentage points to 1.8%, with expected growth in the US marked down sharply from 2.8% to 1.7%. Growth expectations for emerging and developing economies in 2014 have been trimmed from 4.8% to 4.6%, with the forecast for China also reduced by 0.2 percentage points, to 7.4%.
Japan’s crude imports increase
Japan’s crude oil imports in June increased by 1% y-o-y to 3.16M b/d, according to preliminary data from the country’s Ministry of Finance. But imports in 1H14 were down 3.4% y-o-y averaging 3.53M b/d, Reuters reports.
India’s crude imports increase, product exports decline
India’s crude imports in June increased by 6.5% m-o-m and 12.3% y-o-y to 3.93M b/d, according to the country’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. Crude imports in 1H14 were up slightly from the same period last year averaging 3.86M b/d. Product exports in June declined marginally from the previous month to 1.27M b/d, down from 1.37M b/d in June 2013. Product exports in 1H14 averaged 1.3M b/d, down from an average of 1.37M b/d in 1H13.
HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to an 18-month high of 52.0 in July 2014 on the back of strong ordering. This is up from a final reading of 50.7 in June and is the fourth consecutive month of improving conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector, suggesting that government measures to stimulate the economy have had some effect.
US Steel Imports
The US imported 3.3 Mt of steel in June 2014 down 11% month-on-month but up 46% year-on-year, according to official data. Combined US steel imports for the 1h14 totalled 19.1 Mt, up 34% on the same period in 2013.
US crude stocks decline
US crude inventories declined by 4M bbls w-o-w to total 371.1M bbls in the week ending 18 July, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude stocks in the Midwest (where refinery runs hit record highs last week) fell by 2M bbls w-o-w to 86M bbls, the lowest level since April 2010. Crude inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma dropped by 1.5M bbls from the prior week’s total to 18.8M bbls, the lowest since November 2008. US crude oil refinery inputs decreased marginally from the previous week’s record averaging 16.6M b/d. US total gasoline stocks increased by 3.38M bbls w-o-w to 217.9M bbls, the highest since March. Gulf coast gasoline stocks were up by 2.62M bbls w-o-w at 73.5M bbls. US distillate inventories climbed by 1.6M bbls w-ow to 126M bbls, the largest volume since October. US crude imports were little changed from the prior week’s average at 7.4M b/d.
French Coal Imports
France’s monthly coal imports fell to their lowest level in over 15 years in May 2014 at 0.7 Mt, down 60% year-on-year, according to data from McCloskey. Coking coal imports plunged to their lowest level since March 2012 at 0.2 Mt, down 72% year-on-year. Imports of steam coal (incl. anthracite) also fell in May, down 54% to 0.5 Mt.
European Consumer Confidence Declines
Consumer confidence in the Eurozone fell to a three month low of -8.4 in July, down from a revised -7.5 in June, according to preliminary data from the European Commission. Consumer sentiment also declined in the European Union as a whole in July, falling to -5.5 in July, down from -4.3 in June, which has added to concerns over the strength of the region’s economic recovery.
Australia’s product imports increase in May
Australia’s imports of gasoline, jet fuel and diesel in May increased by 61.6% m-o-m to 2.1M mt, according to the country’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. Jet fuel imports increased by 74.5% from the previous month to 90K b/d (an eight-year high according to Argus). Australia took its first Indian jet fuel cargoes since November 2012, at an average of 21K b/d. Imports of Japanese jet fuel increased from zero in the previous month to 29K b/d. Gasoline imports meanwhile climbed by 81.5% m-o-m to 94K b/d, with imports from Singapore jumping 87.3% to 80K b/d. Diesel imports rose 54.3% m-o-m to 322K b/d, with the majority of demand serviced by exports from Singapore, South Korea and Japan. Australian imports of Indonesian diesel surged by 753% to 40K b/d. Meanwhile, Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp is currently planning to construct a 16K b/d diesel import terminal at Port Bonython in South Australia, with operations scheduled to start in 2Q14, Reuters reports. Diesel will be imported from Asia, including Japan, the Middle East and North America, a Mitsubishi spokeswoman said.
World Crude Steel Production
Combined steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association rose by 3.1% year-on-year in June 2014 to 137.1 Mt. Total steel production for the 1h14 was up 2.5% year-on-year at 821.3 Mt.
There were year-on-year increases in US (+1.9% to 7.2 Mt), Russian (+3.9% to 5.9 Mt) and EU (+0.7% to 14.2 Mt) steel production in June 2014, while steel output declined in Japan (-1.7% to 9.1 Mt). South Korean steel production grew by over 10% year-on-year for the fourth month in succession in June (+10.8% to 6.0 Mt) and, as previously reported, there was also an increase in Chinese output (+4.5% to 69.3 Mt).
China’s imports of Middle East crude increase y-o-y
Chinese imports of Middle East crude in June increased by 664K b/d y-o-y to 3.19M b/d but were down by 92K b/d m-o-m, according to the country’s General Administration of Customs. Chinese crude imports from the Middle East in 1H14 increased by 451K b/d y-o-y to average 3.4M b/d, as the country’s intake of Iranian, Iraqi and Omani crude has climbed. China’s imports of West African crude in June fell by 199K b/d from the previous month to 976K b/d. West African crude exports to the country in 1H14 however, were are up 97K b/d y-o-y at 1.17M b/d. The country’s imports of crude from the Caribbean were down by 117K b/d m-o-m at 530K b/d, with 1H14 imports averaging 535K b/d, up 64K b/d y-o-y. Imports from the Mediterranean and Kazakhstan meanwhile have plummeted due to production problems in both regions.
Chinese Bauxite Imports
Indian bauxite exports to China rose to their highest level in 12 months in June 2014 at 0.8 Mt, up 46% month-on-month, according to official data. Imports of bauxite from Australia also increased in June, up 14% to 1.4 Mt. China imported 2.9 Mt of bauxite in June, up 38% month-on-month, although this is still well below the year-to-date high of 8.0 Mt achieved in January.
Chinese Iron Ore Imports Breakdown
China imported 45.8 Mt of iron ore from Australia in June 2014, up 1% month-on-month, according to official data. Imports of Brazilian iron ore were stable in June at 12.4 Mt. Meanwhile, imports from South Africa and Sierra Leone fell by 26% and 44% month-on-month, to 3.2 Mt and 1.1 Mt respectively. Iron ore imports from other sources fell by 6% month-on-month to 11.2 Mt.
Chinese House Prices Decline
China’s new-home prices fell month-on-month in a record 55 of 70 cities in June, according to official statistics. This is the most since January 2011 when the method by which the statistics are compiled was changed.
Indonesia Resumes Concentrates Exports
According to a statement from the mining ministry, cited by Reuters, Indonesia has exported metal ore concentrates for the first time since a ban on raw ore exports and an escalating tax on metal concentrate exports was introduced on 12 January 2014. Two companies are reported to have exported iron ore, lead and zinc concentrates last week after agreeing to pay a 20% export tax.
Angolan crude exports set to increase m-o-m
Angolan crude oil exports in September are scheduled to increase by 5.4% m-o-m to 1.77M b/d, Reuters reports. Meanwhile, Rosneft’s 130K b/d Achinsk refinery is expected to be restarted in August, Argus reports. The plant has been shut down since June, following a serious accident. The plant is initially expected to process around 60K b/d in August with intake increasing to 120K b/d in September.
Singapore’s middle distillate stocks rise to 2 and a ½ year high
Singapore’s middle distillate stocks climbed by 1.22M bbls to a 2 and a ½ year high of 13.13M bbls in the week to July 16, according to the country’s International Enterprise, Reuters reports. Singapore’s total diesel imports declined by 10% to 284K mt with a drop in imports from South Korea of 201K mt to 83K mt. Meanwhile, Singaporean diesel exports to Malaysia rose by 56% from the previous week to 145K mt.
US Industrial Production
Industrial production in the US rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year in June 2014, according to data from the US Federal Reserve. This is the fifth consecutive month-on-month gain. Industrial production rose by 5.5% year-on-year in the 2q14.
European Car Sales
European passenger car registrations rose by 4.5% year-on-year in June 2014 to 1.19 million units, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association. This is the tenth consecutive annual increase in sales. Car sales for the 1h14 totalled 6.62 million units, up 6.5% year-on-year.
US refinery inputs reach record
US crude oil refinery inputs climbed by 374K b/d from the previous week to a record 16.6M b/d in the week ending 11 July, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Refineries were operating at 93.8% of capacity. Gulf Coast refinery inputs were little changed from last week’s record volume at 8.6M b/d. Midwest refinery inputs were up by 196K b/d w-o-w to a record 3.8M b/d. US West Coast refinery inputs increased by 194K b/d from the previous week to average 2.5M b/d. US crude inventories fell by 7.5M bbls w-o-w to total 375M bbls. Midwest crude stocks declined by 2.6M bbls w-o-w to 88M bbls, the lowest total since November 2010. US crude imports rose by 142K b/d from the prior week to average 7.4M b/d.
Chinese Economic Update
China’s economy grew by 7.5% year-on-year in the 2q14, up from an 18-month low of 7.4% in the 1q14, according to official data. The Chinese government has used a range of support measures including additional infrastructure investment and higher bank lending, in a bid to stimulate economic growth, Reuters reports.
China produced 69.3 Mt of steel in June 2014, down 1.1 Mt month-on-month, but up 3.2 Mt year-on-year, according to official data. Steel production in the 1h14 totalled 412.0 Mt, up 12.6 Mt on the same period in 2013.
S. Korea’s crude imports fall in June
S. Korea’s crude imports fell nearly 6% y-o-y in June to 2.4 mb/d but its intake of Iranian crude rose 7% to 148 kb/d, reports Reuters. However, in the first 6 months of this year its shipments from Iran were down 11% y-o-y to an average 126 kb/d.
German Steel Production
Germany produced 3.6 Mt of steel in June 2014, down 9% month-on-month, but up 1% year-on-year, according to official data. Steel production in the 1h14 totalled 22.5 Mt, up 4% on the same period in 2013.
Chinese Bank Lending To Increase
Reuters reports that Chinese bank lending looks set to experience its strongest increase since the 2009 financial crisis this year, with 9.5 trillion yuan (US$1.5 trillion) worth of new loans expected to be issued, according to an official briefing from China’s central bank. The bank is also taking steps to support the country’s property market; as of the end of June outstanding property loans had risen 19% year-on-year, to 16.2 trillion yuan, with new loans in the real estate sector rising 18% year-on-year in the 1h14.