Brazilian Iron Ore Exports Breakdown
Brazilian iron ore exports to China rose to a seven-month high of 15.9 Mt in July, although this was still down by 0.4 Mt year-on-year, according to official data. In contrast, shipments from Brazil to Europe (incl. Turkey) rose by 1.4 Mt to 6.8 Mt, the highest level since August 2013. Brazil exported a total of 34.0 Mt of iron ore in July, up 2.8 Mt year-on-year.
International Grains Council Update
In its latest update the International Grains Council has revised down its forecast for US soya (beans & meal) exports in the 2015/16 (Oct-Sep) harvest year by 1.5 Mt to 57.5 Mt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s 2015/16 (Jul-Jun) corn export forecast has been revised up by 2.4 Mt, which would mark an annual gain of 6.8 Mt if realised.
Russia’s Baltic exports set to surge by almost a quarter in September
Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports from the Baltic in September are scheduled to increase by 286K b/d m-o-m (23%) and 172K b/d (13%) y-o-y to average 1.54M b/d, Energy Intelligence reports. Loadings from Primorsk are expected to jump 148K b/d m-o-m and 99K b/d y-o-y to 911K b/d. Ust Luga exports are set to rise by 138K b/d m-o-m and 73K b/d y-o-y to 611K b/d.
India’s crude imports from Iraq surge in July
India’s crude oil imports from Iraq in July increased by 122K b/d m-o-m and 262K b/d y-o-y to average a multi-year high of 814K b/d, Reuters reports citing tanker tracking data. This made the Middle Eastern country India’s largest crude supplier in the month. Over the first seven months of 2015, Iraq’s crude exports to India have increased by 25% y-o-y to average 624K b/d. India’s overall imports from the Middle East Gulf in July were up by 247K b/d m-o-m and 323K b/d y-o-y to a six-month high of 323K b/d. Shipments from West Africa rose by 124K b/d m-o-m and 58K b/d y-o-y to 721K b/d. Imports from Latin America and the Caribbean were up 87K b/d m-o-m but down 34K b/d y-o-y.
Japan’s JX set to lower crude runs but product exports hit record high
Japan’s largest refiner JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation has said that it will reduce its crude runs for domestic consumption in September by 5% y-o-y to 0.94M b/d, Reuters reports. For comparison its August crude refining for domestic use was 1.05M b/d, down 2% y-o-y. In contrast, declining domestic demand led JX’s oil product exports in August to reach a monthly record high of 189K b/d.
US 2q15 GDP Revised Upwards
US GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.7% in the 2q15, according to the latest estimate from the US Department of Commerce. This is an upward revision from the initial estimate of 2.3% and reflects higher inventory levels and stronger business investment.
Japanese Steel Exports
Japan’s steel exports rose to a three month high of 3.5 Mt in July, up 6% year-on-year, the Japan Iron and Steel Association reports. Although, steel shipments to China, South Korea and Taiwan continued to fall in July, cargoes to other destinations in Asia rose by 22% to 1.5 Mt. Exports to all destinations in January-July were up 2% on the same seven months in 2014 at 24.6 Mt.
Colombian Steam Coal Exports
Colombia exported 6.3 Mt of steam coal in July, down 1.1 Mt year-on-year, according to data from IHS Energy. Shipments to Europe fell by 0.5 Mt in July, to 4.7 Mt, while exports to the Americas totalled 1.8 Mt, down 0.6 Mt. Nevertheless, despite weaker numbers in July, steam coal exports to all destinations for January-July were up 6.4 Mt on the same period in 2014 at 46.0 Mt.
US Steel Imports
At 2.9 Mt, US steel imports remained below 3 Mt in July for the second successive month for the first time since the 1q14, according to preliminary US Census Bureau data. Steel imports in January-July were down slightly on the same period in 2014 at 22.5 Mt.
Chinese Steel Price Falls
The Chinese domestic price for hot rolled band (HRB) price fell by $13/t in the two weeks to 26 August to $269/t, cancelling out the increase in the first half of the month and resulting in its lowest level since March 2000, according to the latest SteelBenchmarker from World Steel Dynamics. The US domestic HRB price fell by $17/t over the same period to $505/t - it is now down by $241/t year-on-year. In contrast, the EU HRB price rose by $14/t to $428/t, its highest level since late June.
Urals exports from Novorossiysk set to fall in September
Russian Urals crude oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novoyrossiysk in September are scheduled to fall by 20K b/d m-o-m to average 474K b/d, Reuters reports.
US crude stocks fall as imports tumble
US crude stocks fell by 5.5M bbls w-o-w to a five-month low of 450.8M bbls in the week ending 21 August, according to the US Energy Information Administration. US crude imports were down by 839K b/d from the prior week to an average of 7.2M b/d. Over the last four weeks imports have averaged 1.7% less y-o-y. US crude runs slipped by 117K b/d w-o-w to 16.7M b/d.
South Korean Coal Imports Rise
South Korea’s coal imports rose to a three-month high of 11.9 Mt in July, up 0.7 Mt year-on-year, according to official customs statistics. This was due to a 0.8 Mt rise in coking coal imports to 2.7 Mt, while there was a small fall in shipments of steam coal and anthracite combined, to 9.2 Mt. Imports of all coal types in the period January-July were up 3.4 Mt on the same seven months in 2014 at 80.1 Mt.
Chinese Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates
The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and signalled a reduction in the bank reserve ratio on 25 August in a bid to arrest sharp declines in the country’s stock market and support the wider economy, the FT reports. The one-year benchmark bank lending rate was cut by 25 basis points to 4.6% and one year benchmark deposit rates by the same amount to 1.75%. Meanwhile, the central bank also announced that, from 6 September, the reserve requirement for most major banks would be reduced by 50 basis points to 18%.
Russia’s crude runs rise in July
Russia’s crude throughputs increased by 254K b/d m-o-m and 87K b/d y-o-y to average 5.9M b/d, Reuters reports citing data from Russia’s Energy Ministry. Gasoline output edged downwards but was up 3.9% from July 2014 at 898K b/d. Gasoil production increased by 2.2% m-o-m and 1.2% y-o-y to 1.6M b/d. However, fuel oil volumes while falling only marginally m-o-m, were down by more than 12% y-o-y to 1.3M b/d.
South Korea agrees to buy more Iranian oil
South Korea has agreed to increase its purchases of Iranian crude oil after world powers negotiated a deal to ease international sanctions on the country, Reuters reports, citing Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh. South Korea purchased 180K b/d prior to sanctions with imports currently around 100K b/d.
South Korean Iron Ore Imports
South Korean iron ore imports fell by 0.8 Mt year-on-year in the 1h15 to 36.0 Mt, as a drop in shipments from Australia (-0.4 Mt to 26.5 Mt) and Brazil (-1.2 Mt to 6.3 Mt) was partially negated by a rise in cargoes from South Africa (+0.5 Mt to 1.6 Mt), according to the Tex Report. Imports in June fell to a nine-month low of 5.5 Mt, although they were down only slightly year-on-year.
Chinese Minor Bulk Imports Rise
China’s combined imports of bauxite, alumina, steel scrap, fertiliser, wood pulp and nickel, manganese, copper and chromium ores rose to an 18-month high of 16.9 Mt in July, up 2.5 Mt year-on-year, according to China Customs data. This was primarily due to a 2.0 Mt increase in bauxite imports to 5.1 Mt, also the highest level since January 2014. Nickel ore imports rose to an 11-month high of 5.0 Mt in July, although they were still down by 0.1 Mt year-on-year.
China’s crude imports from the Caribbean and Latin America hit record high
China’s crude oil imports from the Caribbean and Latin America in July surged by 245K b/d m-o-m and 645K b/d (105%) y-o-y to a record high of 1.19M b/d, according the country’s General Administration of Customs. Growth was driven by higher Venezuelan imports, while a rebound in Colombian purchases and strong y-o-y growth in Brazilian shipments further lifted volumes. Imports from the Middle East dropped by 300K b/d m-o-m to 3.61M b/d but this was still up by 432K b/d. Imports from West Africa rebounded from recent months of subdued y-o-y growth to increase by 216K b/d m-o-m and 180K b/d y-o-y to a year-to-date high of 1.24M b/d.
Flash China Manufacturing PMI Falls
The Caixin Flash China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), published by Markit, fell to its lowest level in over six years in August at 47.1. This is down from July’s two year low of 47.8 and is the sixth successive month it has been below the 50 benchmark that separates expansion and contraction.
World Steel Production
A 4.6% year-on-year decline in Chinese crude steel output in July, to 65.8 Mt, helped to pull global steel output for the same month down by 3.8% to 132.9 Mt, according to the World Steel Association. There were also falls in Japanese (-4.9% to 8.8 Mt), US (-9.1% to 7.0 Mt), Russian (-2.8% to 6.0 Mt) and Taiwanese (-2.8% to 1.9 Mt) steel production. Slower output growth in Germany (+4.7% to 3.6 Mt) and declines in Italy (-11.6% to 1.9 Mt) and France (-1.4% to 1.4 Mt) contributed to an overall slowdown in EU steel production growth (+0.3% to 13.9 Mt). Meanwhile, Indian steel output grew by 1.2% to 7.7 Mt in July, although growth remains below the rates seen at the start of 2015.
India’s oil product exports surge in July
India’s exports of diesel, gasoline, naphtha and jet in July increased by 124K b/d m-o-m and 283K b/d y-o-y to average 1.21M b/d, data from India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell shows. This is the highest volume since December 2014. Exports of diesel rose by 74K b/d m-o-m and 197K b/d y-o-y to 521K b/d, a five-month high.
India’s crude imports jump to 17-month high
India’s imports of crude oil in July increased by 377K b/d m-o-m and 830K b/d y-o-y to average 4.2M b/d, according to the country’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
Japanese Steel Output
Japan’s crude steel production rose to 8.8 Mt in July, from 8.6 Mt in June, although it was still down by 4.9% year-on-year, according to data from the Japan Iron and Steel Federation. Similarly, crude steel output for the period January-July was down by 4.8% on the same period in 2014 at 61.4 Mt.
US Weekly Grain Exports Rise
Exports of corn, wheat and soyabeans combined from the US rose to a four-week high of 1.93 Mt in the week ending 13 August, up 0.51 Mt week-on-week, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Shipments of all three commodities increased on the preceding week, with wheat and soyabean exports at their highest levels since April.