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IEA Oil Market Report Highlights

Oil

In its latest Oil Market Report, the IEA estimated global oil demand growth at over 2M b/d in 1Q2018, buoyed by cold weather in the northern hemisphere. However, higher oil prices are viewed a factor behind an anticipated slowdown in growth to 0.9M b/d in 2Q2018. Demand growth in the second half of the year is estimated at 1.3M b/d, down from an average of 1.5M b/d in 1H2018. Conversely in 2019, growth is projected to rise from 1.2M b/d in 1H to 1.65M b/d in 2H.

Global refining throughput in 3Q2018 is projected to rise 2M b/d q-o-q, with the Atlantic Basin accounting for over half of the increase.

Meanwhile, the IEA estimated OECD commercial inventories rose 13.9M bbls to 2.84B bbls in May, which was only the third monthly rise since July 2017 and just half the normal gain for the time of the year. Stocks were expected to have continued their overall downward trend in June, according to preliminary data.

Finally, the IEA estimated OPEC oil production at a 4-month high of 31.87M b/d in June, as Saudi Arabia and Russia raised their combined output by 500K b/d m-o-m. This led to a 100% OPEC/non-OEPC compliance rate with the 2016 supply-cut agreement, with compliance among OPEC members at 120% and among non-OPEC members averaging just 66%.

By mid afternoon in London, ICE Brent was trading at $73.49/bbl, up $0.09/bbl from the end of Wednesday’s trading day. The ICE Brent/WTI spread stood at $3.79/bbl, down $0.66/bbl w-o-w and $4.85/bbl lower on last month’s average.